IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v44y2025i2p575-588.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Temporal Patterns in Migration Flows Evidence from South Sudan

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Schincariol
  • Thomas Chadefaux

Abstract

What explains the variation in migration flows over time and space? Existing work has contributed to a rich understanding of the factors that affect why and when people leave. What is less understood are the dynamics of migration flows over time. Existing work typically focuses on static variables at the country‐year level and ignores the temporal dynamics. Are there recurring temporal patterns in migration flows? And can we use these patterns to improve our forecasts of the number of migrants? Here, we introduce new methods to uncover temporal sequences—motifs—in the number of migrants over time and use these motifs for forecasting. By developing a multivariable shape similarity‐based model, we show that temporal patterns do exist. Moreover, using these patterns results in better out‐of‐sample forecasts than a benchmark of statistical and neural networks models. We apply the new method to the case of South Sudan.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Schincariol & Thomas Chadefaux, 2025. "Temporal Patterns in Migration Flows Evidence from South Sudan," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 575-588, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:44:y:2025:i:2:p:575-588
    DOI: 10.1002/for.3209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3209
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.3209?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:44:y:2025:i:2:p:575-588. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.