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Nowhere to go? Why do some civil wars generate more refugees than others?

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  • Oguzhan Turkoglu
  • Thomas Chadefaux

Abstract

Civil wars greatly vary in the number of refugees they generate, ranging from zero to over six millions in a given conflict. Work on this variation has largely focused on “push” factors – deleterious attributes of the home country that lead to refugee flows, such as violence and repression. Yet, few have studied the importance of “pull” factors – attractive features of the potential host countries. Here we show in particular the importance of the expected quality of life in possible destinations. Using data on civil wars from 1951 to 2008, we find that the proximity of democratic and wealthy potential hosts accounts for much of the variation in the number of refugees. Out-of-sample validation methods show that these “pull” factors account for nearly as much predictive power as all the main variables previously identified in the literature combined.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguzhan Turkoglu & Thomas Chadefaux, 2019. "Nowhere to go? Why do some civil wars generate more refugees than others?," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 401-420, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:45:y:2019:i:2:p:401-420
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2019.1554571
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    Cited by:

    1. Miceal Canavan & Oguzhan Turkoglu, 2022. "The Effect of Migration on Political Support for Co-ethnics: Evidence From Turkey," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(4-5), pages 867-898, May.
    2. Renner, Laura & Schmid, Lena, 2023. "The decision to flee: Exploring gender-specific determinants of international refugee migration," Discussion Paper Series 2023-01, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    3. Oguzhan Turkoglu, 2022. "Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 136-149, March.
    4. Sonja Fransen & Hein de Haas, 2022. "Trends and Patterns of Global Refugee Migration," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 97-128, March.

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