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A data mining approach to financial time series modelling and forecasting

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  • Zoran Vojinovic
  • Vojislav Kecman
  • Rainer Seidel

Abstract

This paper describes one of the relatively new data mining techniques that can be used to forecast the foreign exchange time series process. The research aims to contribute to the development and application of such techniques by exposing them to difficult real‐world (non‐toy) data sets. The results reveal that the prediction of a Radial Basis Function Neural Network model for forecasting the daily $US/$NZ closing exchange rates is significantly better than the prediction of a traditional linear autoregressive model in both directional change and prediction of the exchange rate itself. We have also investigated the impact of the number of model inputs (model order), the number of hidden layer neurons and the size of training data set on prediction accuracy. In addition, we have explored how the three different methods for placement of Gaussian radial basis functions affect its predictive quality and singled out the best one. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoran Vojinovic & Vojislav Kecman & Rainer Seidel, 2001. "A data mining approach to financial time series modelling and forecasting," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 225-239, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:isacfm:v:10:y:2001:i:4:p:225-239
    DOI: 10.1002/isaf.207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1997. "A Model Selection Approach To Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models And Artificial Neural Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 540-550, November.
    2. Tim Hill & Marcus O'Connor & William Remus, 1996. "Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(7), pages 1082-1092, July.
    3. Zaiyong Tang & Paul A. Fishwick, 1993. "Feedforward Neural Nets as Models for Time Series Forecasting," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 374-385, November.
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    1. Jasleen Kaur & Khushdeep Dharni, 2022. "Assessing efficacy of association rules for predicting global stock indices," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 49(3), pages 329-339, September.
    2. Daniel E. O'Leary, 2010. "Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management: ISI journal and proceeding citations, and research issues from most‐cited papers," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 41-58, January.
    3. Salim Lahmiri, 2020. "A predictive system integrating intrinsic mode functions, artificial neural networks, and genetic algorithms for forecasting S&P500 intra‐day data," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 55-65, April.
    4. Jasleen Kaur & Khushdeep Dharni, 2022. "Application and performance of data mining techniques in stock market: A review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 219-241, October.
    5. Daniel E. O'Leary, 2009. "Downloads and citations in Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1‐2), pages 21-31, January.
    6. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Commodity price forecasting via neural networks for coffee, corn, cotton, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar, and wheat," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 169-181, July.

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