IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i23p15908-d987831.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spillover Connectedness among Global Uncertainties and Sectorial Indices of Pakistan: Evidence from Quantile Connectedness Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Shabeer Khan

    (Department of Islamic Economics and Finance, Faculty of Political Science, Sakarya University, Serdivan 54050, Turkey)

  • Mirzat Ullah

    (Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, Yekaterinburg 620002, Russia)

  • Mohammad Rahim Shahzad

    (Department of Islamic Economics and Finance, Faculty of Political Science, Sakarya University, Serdivan 54050, Turkey)

  • Uzair Abdullah Khan

    (Department of Business Administration, Sukkur IBA University, Sukkur 65200, Pakistan)

  • Umair Khan

    (Department of Mathematics and Social Sciences, Sukkur IBA University, Sukkur 65200, Pakistan)

  • Sayed M. Eldin

    (Center of Research, Faculty of Engineering, Future University in Egypt, New Cairo 11835, Egypt)

  • Abeer M. Alotaibi

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Tabuk, P.O. Box 741, Tabuk 71491, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

This study empirically examines the spillovers from global uncertainties to the sectoral indices of the Pakistan stock market (PSX). Furthermore, we select three major sectoral indices, i.e., the energy, financial, and material composite indices. These indices represent a massive capital volume of PSX. We utilize the data from 10 May 2002 to 27 June 2022 to examine the outbreak due to the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2008 and the impact of the world’s great pandemic, of COVID-19. Additionally, we applied a novel econometric estimation approach: quantile connectedness. We found that connectedness is strong in the case of highly positive changes (above the 20% quantile) and highly negative changes (below the 80% quantile). Additionally, the study also found that materials sector is the least connected at level of 1.58%. In contrast, the financial sector was a strong transmitter of spillovers during the entire study period at connectedness of 54.59%. Regarding graphical results, we found that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and crude oil index (WTI) are net transmitters, especially during the financial crisis and COVID-19, whereas WTI transmitting impact was significantly dominant during GFC 2007–2008. Conversely, the index MSCI remains the recipient of the spillover during the entire study period, where the remitting effect was observed as dominant during the GFC, and COVID-19 outbreak. The energy sector was found to be more recipient during the GFC, with additional turn transmitters of the shocks after the COVID-19 pandemic. The study recommends that portfolio managers and individual investors consider the materials sector for their investment due to the least connectivity. Similarly, investors need to invest carefully in the financial sector because it is a net transmitter of spillovers to other sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Shabeer Khan & Mirzat Ullah & Mohammad Rahim Shahzad & Uzair Abdullah Khan & Umair Khan & Sayed M. Eldin & Abeer M. Alotaibi, 2022. "Spillover Connectedness among Global Uncertainties and Sectorial Indices of Pakistan: Evidence from Quantile Connectedness Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:23:p:15908-:d:987831
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/23/15908/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/23/15908/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hafiz M. Sohail & Mir Zatullah & Zengfu Li, 2021. "Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Bilateral Trade: Experience From Asian Emerging Economies," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    3. Chang, Tsangyao & Chen, Wen-Yi & Gupta, Rangan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Are stock prices related to the political uncertainty index in OECD countries? Evidence from the bootstrap panel causality test," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 288-300.
    4. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2019. "Bayesian compressed vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 135-154.
    5. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    6. Yang, Miao & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, 2016. "The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 92-100.
    7. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2021. "Interest rate swaps and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A quantile connectedness approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
    9. Ahir, Hites & Bloom, Nicholas & Furceri, Davide, 2022. "The world uncertainty index," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117833, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    11. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "On the aggregate effects of global uncertainty: Evidence from an emerging economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 390-407, September.
    12. Dakhlaoui, Imen & Aloui, Chaker, 2016. "The interactive relationship between the US economic policy uncertainty and BRIC stock markets," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 141-157.
    13. Dohyoung Kwon, 2022. "The impacts of oil price shocks and United States economic uncertainty on global stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1595-1607, April.
    14. Tsai, I-Chun, 2017. "The source of global stock market risk: A viewpoint of economic policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 122-131.
    15. Gunes Kamber & Ozer Karagedikli & Michael Ryan & Tugrul Vehbi, 2016. "International spill-overs of uncertainty shocks: Evidence from a FAVAR," CAMA Working Papers 2016-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Chen, Chun-Da & Demirer, Rıza, 2022. "Oil beta uncertainty and global stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2022. "Do economic policy uncertainty indices matter in joint volatility cycles between U.S. and Japanese stock markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    18. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Lee, Chang-Min, 2015. "International economic policy uncertainty and stock prices: Wavelet approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 118-122.
    19. Steven J. Davis, 2016. "An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    21. Yu, Miao & Song, Jinguo, 2018. "Volatility forecasting: Global economic policy uncertainty and regime switching," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 511(C), pages 316-323.
    22. Mohamed Arouri & Christophe Rault & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks and GCC stock markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1822-1834.
    23. Liu, Li & Zhang, Tao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 99-105.
    24. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-547 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2019. "The impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns in regime switching environment: Evidence from sectoral perspectives," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 991-1016, April.
    26. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
    27. Ahmad, Wasim & Sharma, Sumit Kumar, 2018. "Testing output gap and economic uncertainty as an explicator of stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 293-306.
    28. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
    29. Ghani, Maria & Guo, Qiang & Ma, Feng & Li, Tao, 2022. "Forecasting Pakistan stock market volatility: Evidence from economic variables and the uncertainty index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1180-1189.
    30. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mirzat Ullah & Hafiz M. Sohail & Hossam Haddad & Nidal Mahmoud Al-Ramahi & Mohammed Arshad Khan, 2022. "Global Structural Shocks and FDI Dynamic Impact on Productive Capacities: An Application of CS-ARDL Estimation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Shabeer Khan & Ghulam Abbas & Mohammed Alhashim, 2023. "Novel COVID-19 Outbreak and Global Uncertainty in the Top-10 Affected Countries: Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Feng & Wang, Ziwei & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between international economic policy uncertainty and the U.S. stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Hong, Yun & Zhang, Rushan & Zhang, Feipeng, 2024. "Time-varying causality impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns: Global evidence from developed and emerging countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Tihana Škrinjarić & Zrinka Orlović, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Spillovers: Case of Selected CEE Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-33, July.
    4. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Sustainability of Global Economic Policy and Stock Market Returns in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Sensitivity of US equity returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Yaming Ma & Ziwei Wang & Feng He, 2022. "How do economic policy uncertainties affect stock market volatility? Evidence from G7 countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2303-2325, April.
    7. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    8. Li, Tao & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Xuehua & Zhang, Yaojie, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: Novel evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 24-33.
    9. Shao, Ying-Hui & Yang, Yan-Hong & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty comove with stock markets: New evidence from symmetric thermal optimal path method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    10. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    11. Hu, Zhijun & Kutan, Ali M. & Sun, Ping-Wen, 2018. "Is U.S. economic policy uncertainty priced in China's A-shares market? Evidence from market, industry, and individual stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 207-220.
    12. Lee, Kiryoung & Jeon, Yoontae & Nam, Eun-Young, 2021. "Chinese Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Cross-Section of U.S. Asset Returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1063-1077.
    13. Gong, Yuting & He, Zhongzhi & Xue, Wenjun, 2022. "EPU spillovers and stock return predictability: A cross-country study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Kubra Saka Ilgin, 2022. "Examining the Relationship Between National Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Indices: An Empirical Analysis for Selected European Countries," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 455-474, July.
    15. Muhammad Asif Khan & Masood Ahmed & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2020. "US Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Nexus Revisited through Dynamic ARDL Simulation and Threshold Modelling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-20, November.
    16. Umar, Zaghum & Mokni, Khaled & Escribano, Ana, 2022. "Connectedness between the COVID-19 related media coverage and Islamic equities: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Stef, Nicolae & Wissal, Ben Arfi & Sami, Ben Jabeur, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects and connectedness among climate change, technological innovation, and uncertainty: Evidence from a quantile VAR network and wavelet coherence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    18. Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Gabauer, David & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha, 2024. "Sectoral uncertainty spillovers in emerging markets: A quantile time–frequency connectedness approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 121-139.
    19. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.
    20. Chen, Xiaoyu & Chiang, Thomas C., 2020. "Empirical investigation of changes in policy uncertainty on stock returns—Evidence from China’s market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:23:p:15908-:d:987831. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.