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Bayesian functional emulation of CO2 emissions on future climate change scenarios

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  • Luca Aiello
  • Matteo Fontana
  • Alessandra Guglielmi

Abstract

We propose a statistical emulator for a climate‐economy deterministic integrated assessment model ensemble, based on a functional regression framework. Inference on the unknown parameters is carried out through a mixed effects hierarchical model using a fully Bayesian framework with a prior distribution on the vector of all parameters. We also suggest an autoregressive parameterization of the covariance matrix of the error, with matching marginal prior. In this way, we allow for a functional framework for the discretized output of the simulators that allows their time continuous evaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Aiello & Matteo Fontana & Alessandra Guglielmi, 2023. "Bayesian functional emulation of CO2 emissions on future climate change scenarios," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:34:y:2023:i:8:n:e2821
    DOI: 10.1002/env.2821
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    References listed on IDEAS

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