IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/emetrp/v90y2022i2p831-858.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Welfare Effects of Dynamic Pricing: Evidence From Airline Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin R. Williams

Abstract

Airfares fluctuate due to demand shocks and intertemporal variation in willingness to pay. I estimate a model of dynamic airline pricing accounting for both sources of price adjustments using flight‐level data. I use the model estimates to evaluate the welfare effects of dynamic airline pricing. Relative to uniform pricing, dynamic pricing benefits early‐arriving, leisure consumers at the expense of late‐arriving, business travelers. Although dynamic pricing ensures seat availability for business travelers, these consumers are then charged higher prices. When aggregated over markets, welfare is higher under dynamic pricing than under uniform pricing. The direction of the welfare effect at the market level depends on whether dynamic price adjustments are mainly driven by demand shocks or by changes in the overall demand elasticity.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin R. Williams, 2022. "The Welfare Effects of Dynamic Pricing: Evidence From Airline Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 831-858, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:90:y:2022:i:2:p:831-858
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA16180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA16180
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3982/ECTA16180?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. Pascal Courty & Mario Pagliero, 2012. "The Impact of Price Discrimination on Revenue: Evidence from the Concert Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 359-369, February.
    3. Diego Escobari, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing, Advance Sales and Aggregate Demand Learning in Airlines," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 697-724, December.
    4. Dirk Bergemann & Benjamin Brooks & Stephen Morris, 2015. "The Limits of Price Discrimination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 921-957, March.
    5. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1637-1673, November.
    6. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Sales and consumer inventory," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 543-561, September.
    7. Victor Aguirregabiria, 1999. "The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(2), pages 275-308.
    8. Siegert, Caspar & Ulbricht, Robert, 2020. "Dynamic oligopoly pricing: Evidence from the airline industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Guillermo Gallego & Garrett van Ryzin, 1994. "Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(8), pages 999-1020, August.
    10. Gaurab Aryal & Charles Murry & Jonathan W Williams, 2024. "Price Discrimination in International Airline Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 641-689.
    11. John Conlisk & Eitan Gerstner & Joel Sobel, 1984. "Cyclic Pricing by a Durable Goods Monopolist," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(3), pages 489-505.
    12. Xuanming Su, 2007. "Intertemporal Pricing with Strategic Customer Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 726-741, May.
    13. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2013. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Storable Goods Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2722-2751, December.
    14. Francesc Dilmé & Fei Li, 2019. "Revenue Management without Commitment: Dynamic Pricing and Periodic Flash Sales," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 1999-2034.
    15. John Rust & Sungjin Cho, 2018. "Optimal Dynamic Hotel Pricing," 2018 Meeting Papers 179, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Kalyan Talluri & Garrett van Ryzin, 2004. "Revenue Management Under a General Discrete Choice Model of Consumer Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 15-33, January.
    17. Jeffrey I. McGill & Garrett J. van Ryzin, 1999. "Revenue Management: Research Overview and Prospects," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 233-256, May.
    18. Harikesh Nair, 2007. "Intertemporal price discrimination with forward-looking consumers: Application to the US market for console video-games," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 239-292, September.
    19. Steven Berry & Panle Jia, 2010. "Tracing the Woes: An Empirical Analysis of the Airline Industry," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-43, August.
    20. James D. Dana Jr., 1998. "Advance-Purchase Discounts and Price Discrimination in Competitive Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 395-422, April.
    21. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Sales and Consumer Inventory," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 543-561, Autumn.
    22. Sobel, Joel, 1991. "Durable Goods Monopoly with Entry of New Consumers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1455-1485, September.
    23. Gale, Ian L & Holmes, Thomas J, 1993. "Advance-Purchase Discounts and Monopoly Allocation of Capacity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 135-146, March.
    24. Simon Board & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2016. "Revenue Management with Forward-Looking Buyers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1046-1087.
    25. Andrew Sweeting, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing Behavior in Perishable Goods Markets: Evidence from Secondary Markets for Major League Baseball Tickets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1133-1172.
    26. Alex Gershkov & Benny Moldovanu & Philipp Strack, 2018. "Revenue-Maximizing Mechanisms with Strategic Customers and Unknown, Markovian Demand," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2031-2046, May.
    27. Wen Zhao & Yu-Sheng Zheng, 2000. "Optimal Dynamic Pricing for Perishable Assets with Nonhomogeneous Demand," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 375-388, March.
    28. Phillip Leslie, 2004. "Price Discrimination in Broadway Theater," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(3), pages 520-541, Autumn.
    29. Marco Alderighi & Marcella Nicolini & Claudio A. Piga, 2015. "Combined Effects of Capacity and Time on Fares: Insights from the Yield Management of a Low-Cost Airline," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(4), pages 900-915, October.
    30. Peter P. Belobaba, 1989. "OR Practice—Application of a Probabilistic Decision Model to Airline Seat Inventory Control," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 37(2), pages 183-197, April.
    31. Iñaki Aguirre & Simon Cowan & John Vickers, 2010. "Monopoly Price Discrimination and Demand Curvature," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1601-1615, September.
    32. Nancy L. Stokey, 1979. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(3), pages 355-371.
    33. Wedad Elmaghraby & P{i}nar Keskinocak, 2003. "Dynamic Pricing in the Presence of Inventory Considerations: Research Overview, Current Practices, and Future Directions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1287-1309, October.
    34. Gonca P. Soysal & Lakshman Krishnamurthi, 2012. "Demand Dynamics in the Seasonal Goods Industry: An Empirical Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 293-316, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Garcia & Juha Tolvanen & Alexander K. Wagner, 2022. "Demand Estimation Using Managerial Responses to Automated Price Recommendations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 7918-7939, November.
    2. Gaggero, Alberto A. & Luttmann, Alexander, 2023. "The determinants of hidden-city ticketing: Competition, hub-and-spoke networks, and advance-purchase requirements," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    3. Thommen, Christoph & Hintermann, Beat, 2023. "Price versus Commitment: Managing the demand for off-peak train tickets in a field experiment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    4. Myongjin Kim & Leilei Shen & Qi Ge, 2023. "Does Competition Increase or Decrease Price Dispersion? Insights from One‐Way vs. Round‐Trip Airfares," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 435-455, April.
    5. Ali Hortacsu & Olivia R. Natan & Hayden Parsley & Timothy Schwieg & Kevin R. Williams, 2021. "Incorporating Search and Sales Information in Demand Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2313R1, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2023.
    6. Robert Evan Sanders, 2024. "Dynamic Pricing and Organic Waste Bans: A Study of Grocery Retailers’ Incentives to Reduce Food Waste," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(2), pages 289-316, March.
    7. DHaultfoeuille, Xavier & Wang, Ao & Fevrier, Philippe & Wilner, Lionel, 2022. "Estimating the Gains (and Losses) of Revenue Management," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 621, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    8. Jose M. Betancourt & Ali Horta su & Aniko …ry & Kevin R. Williams, 2024. "Dynamic Price Competition with Capacity Constraints," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2394, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Alexander Erlei & Mattheus Brenig & Nils Engelbrecht, 2024. "Consumer Behavior under Benevolent Price Discrimination," Papers 2404.03581, arXiv.org.
    10. Ali Hortacsu & Olivia R. Natan & Hayden Parsley & Timothy Schwieg & Kevin R. Williams, 2021. "Organizational Structure and Pricing: Evidence from a Large U.S. Airline," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2312R4, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2023.
    11. Manuela Rozalia Gabor & Mihaela Kardos & Flavia Dana Oltean, 2022. "Yield Management—A Sustainable Tool for Airline E-Commerce: Dynamic Comparative Analysis of E-Ticket Prices for Romanian Full-Service Airline vs. Low-Cost Carriers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.
    12. Aniko …ry & Ali Horta su & Kevin Williams, 2022. "Dynamic Price Competition: Theory and Evidence from Airline Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2341R1, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2023.
    13. Peng Du & Lei Xu & Rou Luo & Mingzhu Hou, 2024. "Competing with Low Cost Carrier in a Sustainable Environment: Airline Ticket Pricing, Carbon Trading, and Market Power Structure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, January.
    14. Ali Hortacsu & Olivia R. Natan & Hayden Parsley & Timothy Schwieg & Kevin R. Williams, 2021. "Organizational Structure and Pricing: Evidence from a Large U.S. Airline," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2312R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin R. Williams, 2017. "The Welfare Effects of Dynamic Pricing: Evidence from Airline Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2103R2, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2021.
    2. Kevin R. Williams, 2017. "Dynamic Airline Pricing and Seat Availability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2103R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2020.
    3. Alderighi, Marco & Gaggero, Alberto A. & Piga, Claudio A., 2022. "Hidden prices with fixed inventory: Evidence from the airline industry," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 42-61.
    4. Kevin R. Williams, 2017. "Dynamic Airline Pricing and Seat Availability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2103, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Diego Escobari & Nicholas G. Rupp & Joseph Meskey, 2019. "An Analysis of Dynamic Price Discrimination in Airlines," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(3), pages 639-662, January.
    6. Escobari, Diego & Rupp, Nicholas & Meskey, Joseph, 2018. "Dynamic Price Discrimination in Airlines," MPRA Paper 88078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Escobari, Diego, 2014. "Estimating dynamic demand for airlines," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 26-29.
    8. Gonca P. Soysal & Lakshman Krishnamurthi, 2012. "Demand Dynamics in the Seasonal Goods Industry: An Empirical Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 293-316, March.
    9. Diego Escobari, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing, Advance Sales and Aggregate Demand Learning in Airlines," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 697-724, December.
    10. Omar Besbes & Ilan Lobel, 2015. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination: Structure and Computation of Optimal Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 92-110, January.
    11. James D. Dana Jr. & Kevin R. Williams, 2018. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Sequential Quantity-Price Games," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2136R2, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2019.
    12. James D. Dana Jr. & Kevin R. Williams, 2018. "Oligopoly Price Discrimination: The Role of Inventory Controls," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2136, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. James D. Dana Jr. & Kevin R. Williams, 2020. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Sequential Quantity-Price Games," NBER Working Papers 26794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. James D. Dana Jr. & Kevin R. Williams, 2018. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Sequential Quantity-Price Games," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2136R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2020.
    15. Siegert, Caspar & Ulbricht, Robert, 2020. "Dynamic oligopoly pricing: Evidence from the airline industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. James D. Dana Jr. & Kevin R. Williams, 2018. "Oligopoly Price Discrimination: The Role of Inventory Controls," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2136R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 2018.
    17. Xuanming Su, 2007. "Intertemporal Pricing with Strategic Customer Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 726-741, May.
    18. Ken Moon & Kostas Bimpikis & Haim Mendelson, 2018. "Randomized Markdowns and Online Monitoring," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1271-1290, March.
    19. Raymond Deneckere & James Peck, 2012. "Dynamic Competition With Random Demand and Costless Search: A Theory of Price Posting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 1185-1247, May.
    20. Ali Hortacsu & Olivia R. Natan & Hayden Parsley & Timothy Schwieg & Kevin R. Williams, 2021. "Organizational Structure and Pricing: Evidence from a Large U.S. Airline," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2312R4, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2023.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:90:y:2022:i:2:p:831-858. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.