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Winning Hearts and Minds in Civil Wars: Governance, Leadership Change, and Support for Violent Groups in Iraq

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  • Christoph Mikulaschek
  • Saurabh Pant
  • Beza Tesfaye

Abstract

The “hearts and minds” model of combating rebellions holds that civilians are less likely to support violent opposition groups if the government provides public services and security. Building on this model, we argue that a political event that raises popular expectations of future public service and security provision increases support for the government and decreases sympathy for violent opposition groups. To test this argument, we leverage a unique research design opportunity that stems from the unforeseen announcement of the resignation of Iraq's divisive prime minister in August 2014 while an original survey was being administered across the country. We show that the leadership transition led Iraq's displeased Sunni Arab minority to shift support from the violent opposition to the government. In line with our argument, this realignment was due to rising optimism among Sunni Arabs that the new government would provide services and public goods—specifically security, electricity, and jobs.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Mikulaschek & Saurabh Pant & Beza Tesfaye, 2020. "Winning Hearts and Minds in Civil Wars: Governance, Leadership Change, and Support for Violent Groups in Iraq," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 773-790, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:64:y:2020:i:4:p:773-790
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Vanden Eynde, Oliver & Fetzer, Thiemo & Souza, Pedro CL & Wright, Austin L., 2021. "Losing on the Home Front? Battlefield Casualties, Media, and Public Support for Foreign Interventions," CEPR Discussion Papers 16102, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Maurice Dunaiski & Janne Tukiainen, 2023. "Does income transparency affect support for redistribution? Evidence from Finland's tax day," Discussion Papers 159, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    4. Stephen Stapleton & Andres Uribe & Austin L. Wright, 2022. "Televising Justice during War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(3), pages 529-552, April.
    5. Gerling, Lena & Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2022. "Contagious populists: The impact of election information shocks on populist party preferences in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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