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The Effect of Civilian Casualties on Wartime Informing: Evidence from the Iraq War

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Shaver

    (Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University)

  • Jacob N. Shapiro

    (Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Department of Politics, Princeton University)

Abstract

Scholars of civil war and insurgency have long posited that insurgent organizations and their state enemies incur costs for the collateral damage they cause. We provide the first direct quantitative evidence that wartime informing is affected by civilian casualties. Using newly declassified data on tip flow to Coalition forces in Iraq we find that information flow goes down after government forces inadvertently kill civilians and it goes up when insurgents do so. These results confirm a relationship long posited in the theoretical literature on insurgency but never directly observed, have strong policy implications, and are consistent with a broad range of circumstantial evidence on the topic.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Shaver & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2016. "The Effect of Civilian Casualties on Wartime Informing: Evidence from the Iraq War," HiCN Working Papers 210, Households in Conflict Network, revised Oct 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:210
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    File URL: http://www.hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/HiCN-WP-210-updated.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2016-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Greenstone & Rema Hanna, 2014. "Environmental Regulations, Air and Water Pollution, and Infant Mortality in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3038-3072, October.
    2. Shapiro, Jacob N. & Weidmann, Nils B., 2015. "Is the Phone Mightier Than the Sword? Cellphones and Insurgent Violence in Iraq," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(2), pages 247-274, April.
    3. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    4. Vidya Diwakar, 2015. "The Effect of Armed Conflict on Education: Evidence from Iraq," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(12), pages 1702-1718, December.
    5. Gary Solon & Steven J. Haider & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "What Are We Weighting For?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 301-316.
    6. Eli Berman & Michael Callen & Joseph H. Felter & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2011. "Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(4), pages 496-528, August.
    7. Luke N. Condra & Joseph H. Felter & Radha K. Iyengar & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2010. "The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq," NBER Working Papers 16152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Luke N. Condra & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2012. "Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 167-187, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael A. Rubin, 2020. "Rebel Territorial Control and Civilian Collective Action in Civil War: Evidence from the Communist Insurgency in the Philippines," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(2-3), pages 459-489, February.
    2. Andrew Shaver, 2016. "Information and Communication Technologies, Wartime Informing, and Insurgent Violence," HiCN Working Papers 215, Households in Conflict Network.
    3. Christoph Mikulaschek & Saurabh Pant & Beza Tesfaye, 2020. "Winning Hearts and Minds in Civil Wars: Governance, Leadership Change, and Support for Violent Groups in Iraq," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 773-790, October.

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