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Polarization and the Decline of the American Floating Voter

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  • Corwin D. Smidt

Abstract

The observed rate of Americans voting for a different party across successive presidential elections has never been lower. This trend is largely explained by the clarity of party differences reducing indecision and ambivalence and increasing reliability in presidential voting. American National Election Studies (ANES) Times Series study data show that recent independent, less engaged voters perceive candidate differences as clearly as partisan, engaged voters of past elections and with declining rates of ambivalence, being undecided, and floating. Analysis of ANES inter‐election panel studies shows the decline in switching is present among nonvoters too, as pure independents are as reliable in their party support as strong partisans of prior eras. These findings show parties benefit from the behavioral response of all Americans to polarization. By providing an ideological anchor to candidate evaluations, polarization produces a reliable base of party support that is less responsive to short‐term forces.

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  • Corwin D. Smidt, 2017. "Polarization and the Decline of the American Floating Voter," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(2), pages 365-381, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:61:y:2017:i:2:p:365-381
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12218
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Druckman, James N. & Peterson, Erik & Slothuus, Rune, 2013. "How Elite Partisan Polarization Affects Public Opinion Formation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 57-79, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. James N. Druckman & Donald P. Green & Shanto Iyengar, 2023. "Does Affective Polarization Contribute to Democratic Backsliding in America?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 708(1), pages 137-163, July.
    2. Kuriwaki, Shiro, 2020. "A Clustering Approach for Characterizing Voter Types: An Application to High-Dimensional Ballot and Survey Data," OSF Preprints v3rhz, Center for Open Science.
    3. Federico Vegetti, 2019. "The Political Nature of Ideological Polarization: The Case of Hungary," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 681(1), pages 78-96, January.
    4. Christopher R. Ellis & Joseph Daniel Ura, 2021. "Polarization and the Decline of Economic Voting in American National Elections," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(1), pages 83-89, January.

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