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The geography of Hispanic political behavior in Texas, 2012–2022

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  • M. V. Hood
  • Seth C. McKee

Abstract

Objective We make use of multiple data sources to examine whether there has been geographical polarization in the political behavior of Texas Hispanics from 2012 to 2022. It is widely known that partisan divisions in the American electorate continue to cleave along geographic lines. However, much of this literature on the urban–rural divide does not focus on a specific racial group, and if it does, then it typically highlights differences among non‐Hispanic white voters (Anglos). Methods Making use of aggregate‐ and individual‐level data, we assess Texas Hispanics’ party affiliation, participation, and vote choice according to geographic location. Results We find notable evidence of geographic‐based partisan polarization among Texas’ burgeoning Hispanic population. Conclusions Although the movement of rural/small town Texas Hispanics toward the Republican Party from 2012 to 2022 pales in comparison to this shift among Texas Anglos, a similar partisan dynamic manifests among the former group. We abstain from using the word realignment to characterize these changes in Texas Hispanics’ political behavior according to geographic location, but, nevertheless, it is clear that the Democratic Party's hold on this potentially pivotal group in the Lone Star State's electorate has loosened, and especially among rural/small town Latinos since the rise of Donald Trump.

Suggested Citation

  • M. V. Hood & Seth C. McKee, 2024. "The geography of Hispanic political behavior in Texas, 2012–2022," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1092-1106, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:105:y:2024:i:4:p:1092-1106
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13396
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. V. Hood & Seth C. McKee, 2008. "Gerrymandering on Georgia's Mind: The Effects of Redistricting on Vote Choice in the 2006 Midterm Election," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 89(1), pages 60-77, March.
    2. Michael J. Hanmer & Kerem Ozan Kalkan, 2013. "Behind the Curve: Clarifying the Best Approach to Calculating Predicted Probabilities and Marginal Effects from Limited Dependent Variable Models," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 263-277, January.
    3. Nicholas A. Valentino & David O. Sears, 2005. "Old Times There Are Not Forgotten: Race and Partisan Realignment in the Contemporary South," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 672-688, July.
    4. Hetherington, Marc J., 2001. "Resurgent Mass Partisanship: The Role of Elite Polarization," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(3), pages 619-631, September.
    5. Seth C. McKee & Jeremy M. Teigen & Mathieu Turgeon, 2006. "The Partisan Impact of Congressional Redistricting: The Case of Texas, 2001–2003," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 87(2), pages 308-317, June.
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