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The Democratic Deficit in the States

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  • Jeffrey R. Lax
  • Justin H. Phillips

Abstract

We study how well states translate public opinion into policy. Using national surveys and advances in subnational opinion estimation, we estimate state‐level support for 39 policies across eight issue areas, including abortion, law enforcement, health care, and education. We show that policy is highly responsive to policy‐specific opinion, even controlling for other influences. But we also uncover a striking “democratic deficit”: policy is congruent with majority will only half the time. The analysis considers the influence of institutions, salience, partisan control of government, and interest groups on the magnitude and ideological direction of this democratic deficit. We find the largest influences to be legislative professionalization, term limits, and issue salience. Partisanship and interest groups affect the ideological balance of incongruence more than the aggregate degree thereof. Finally, policy is overresponsive to ideology and party—leading policy to be polarized relative to state electorates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey R. Lax & Justin H. Phillips, 2012. "The Democratic Deficit in the States," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 148-166, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:56:y:2012:i:1:p:148-166
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00537.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Facchini, Giovanni & Hatton, Timothy J. & Steinhardt, Max F., 2024. "Opening Heaven’s Door: Public Opinion and Congressional Votes on the 1965 Immigration Act," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(1), pages 232-270, March.
    2. Parinandi, Srinivas & Hitt, Matthew P., 2018. "How Politics Influences the Energy Pricing Decisions of Elected Public Utilities Commissioners," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 77-87.
    3. Hatton, Tim, 2017. "Public Opinion on Immigration in Europe: Preference versus Salience," CEPR Discussion Papers 12084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Nahrstedt, Jan, 2021. "US economic sanctions on Cuba: An analysis of the reasons for their maintenance," IPE Working Papers 162/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    5. Matsusaka, John G., 2017. "When Do Legislators Follow Constituent Opinion? Evidence from Matched Roll Call and Referendum Votes," Working Papers 264, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    6. Christiansen, Petter, 2020. "The effects of transportation priority congruence for political legitimacy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 61-76.
    7. Asif Efrat & Omer Yair, 2023. "International rankings and public opinion: Compliance, dismissal, or backlash?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 607-629, October.
    8. Timothy Callaghan & Steven Sylvester, 2019. "Autism spectrum disorder, politics, and the generosity of insurance mandates in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, May.
    9. Motta, Matt & Callaghan, Timothy & Trujillo, Kristin Lunz, 2022. "“The CDC Won’t Let Me Be.” The Opinion Dynamics of Support for CDC Regulatory Authority," SocArXiv pxrn3, Center for Open Science.
    10. Chris Hanretty & Benjamin E. Lauderdale & Nick Vivyan, 2020. "A Choice‐Based Measure of Issue Importance in the Electorate," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 519-535, July.
    11. Iskander De Bruycker & Anne Rasmussen, 2021. "Blessing or Curse for Congruence? How Interest Mobilization Affects Congruence between Citizens and Elected Representatives," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 909-928, July.
    12. John G. Matsusaka, 2018. "Public policy and the initiative and referendum: a survey with some new evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 107-143, January.
    13. Scott J. LaCombe, 2021. "Measuring Institutional Design in U.S. States," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1511-1533, July.
    14. Gary Mucciaroni & Kathleen Ferraiolo & Meghan E. Rubado, 2019. "Framing morality policy issues: state legislative debates on abortion restrictions," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 52(2), pages 171-189, June.
    15. Wittels, Annabelle Sophie, 2020. "The effect of politician-constituent conflict on bureaucratic responsiveness under varying information frames," SocArXiv 4x8q2, Center for Open Science.
    16. J. Mitchell Pickerill & Cynthia J. Bowling, 2014. "Polarized Parties, Politics, and Policies: Fragmented Federalism in 2013–2014," Publius: The Journal of Federalism, CSF Associates Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 369-398.
    17. Katsuya Kobayashi & Attila Tasnádi, 2019. "Gerrymandering in a hierarchical legislature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 87(2), pages 253-279, September.

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