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Is Spending More Potent For or Against a Proposition? Evidence from Ballot Measures

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  • Thomas Stratmann

Abstract

The recent academic literature suggests that pressure from special interest groups has little or no influence on whether initiatives and referendums are passed or defeated. Further, there is a consensus that, to the degree that groups' campaigning is important for explaining outcomes, groups opposing the initiative and favoring the status quo have an advantage over groups that support change. These studies have not considered that interest groups campaign strategically and therefore that campaigning is endogenous in ballot measure elections. This study examines the effect of campaigning on ballot proposition elections and develops a research design that accounts for strategic and endogenous campaign advertising. The research design uses a two‐way fixed‐effects model to estimate the effect of interest group pressure on ballot measure outcomes. The data are based on television advertising for or against California ballot measures from 2000 to 2004. The results show that supporting and opposing interest groups' campaigning has a quantitatively important and statistically significant influence on ballot measure outcomes. The campaigning of supporting interest groups is at least as productive as that of opposing interest groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Stratmann, 2006. "Is Spending More Potent For or Against a Proposition? Evidence from Ballot Measures," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(3), pages 788-801, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:50:y:2006:i:3:p:788-801
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00216.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    2. Matsusaka, John G., 2004. "For the Many or the Few," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226510811.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steven M. Karceski & Nives Dolšak & Aseem Prakash & Travis N. Ridout, 2020. "Did TV ads funded by fossil fuel industry defeat the Washington carbon tax?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 301-307, February.
    2. Rogers, Todd T & Middleton, Joel A., 2012. "Are Ballot Initiative Outcomes Influenced by the Campaigns of Independent Groups? A Precinct-Randomized Field Experiment," Scholarly Articles 9830357, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Matsusaka, John G., 2018. "Special Interest Influence under Direct versus Representative Democracy," Working Papers 278, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    4. John M. de Figueiredo & Chang Ho Ji & Thad Kousser, 2010. "Financing Direct Democracy: Revisiting the Research on Campaign Spending and Citizen Initiatives," NBER Working Papers 16356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ted D. Rossier, 2021. "Voter experience and ballot language framing effects: Evidence from a survey experiment," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2955-2971, November.
    6. Allender, William J. & Richards, Timothy J. & Fang, Di & Doyon, Maurice, 2011. "Media Advertising and Ballot Initiatives: An Experimental Analysis," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 104224, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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