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Debt Accumulation and Deleveraging Shaping the Global Business Outlook. Medium-term Projection for the World Economy until 2019

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  • Stefan Schiman

Abstract

The marked decline of oil prices gives some impetus to business activity in the euro area. However, medium-term prospects are dominated by lack of aggregate demand and very low inflation; moreover, the lacking possibility of currency de- or re-valuation, notably the under-valuation for Germany, is weighing on the growth outlook. Prospects for the USA are markedly more favourable since excess private debt was reduced rapidly via bankruptcies and by accepting generous government deficits after the financial market crisis. In China, both prosperity and indebtedness are rising quickly. In Japan, the investment-inhibiting unwinding of corporate debt will wear off in the years to come. Another financial market crisis is looming in Russia, despite the country's moderate degree of foreign indebtedness.

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  • Stefan Schiman, 2015. "Debt Accumulation and Deleveraging Shaping the Global Business Outlook. Medium-term Projection for the World Economy until 2019," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(7), pages 80-91, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wblltn:y:2015:i:7:p:80-91
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Schiman, 2013. "Per-Capita Growth Exceeding Pre-Crisis Pace Only in USA. Medium-term Projections for the World Economy until 2018," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 18(4), pages 198-210, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik, 2015. "Economic Growth Remains Subdued, with High Unemployment Persisting. Medium-term Projection for the Austrian Economy until 2019," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(12), pages 130-144, September.
    2. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2015. "The Tax Reform 2015-16 – Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(22), pages 250-265, December.
    3. Stefan Schiman, 2015. "Confidence in the USA, Uncertainty in the Euro Area, Fragility in the Emerging Markets. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy until 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(19), pages 214-221, November.

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      Keywords

      Medium-term Forecast; World economy;

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