IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mar/magkse/201611.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The (In)Validity of the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem—Findings from a Representative German Population Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Bernd Hayo

    (University of Marburg)

  • Florian Neumeier

    (University of Marburg)

Abstract

In this paper, we utilise data from a German population survey to test the validity of the Ricardian equivalence theorem (RET). In 2013, 2,000 representatively chosen people were asked whether they have altered their consumption and saving behaviour in response to the significant increase in public debt that occurred between 2008 and 2012. Our findings suggest that, in general, RET does not hold. Only 7% of our respondents state that they consume a smaller proportion of their income and save a larger proportion in response to public debt accumulation. Moreover, using multinominal logit regressions, we find that individuals’ consumption responses are significantly related to their economic situation, time preferences, education, and age.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2016. "The (In)Validity of the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem—Findings from a Representative German Population Survey," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201611, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201611
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/paper_2016/11-2016_hayo.pdf
    File Function: First 201611
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reiter, Michael, 1999. "Ricardian equivalence with uninformed consumers?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 747-758, November.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2017. "Public Attitudes toward Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from a Representative German Population Survey," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 42-69, February.
    4. Fritzsche, Carolin & Vandrei, Lars, 2019. "The German real estate transfer tax: Evidence for single-family home transactions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 131-143.
    5. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    6. Maarten Allers & Jakob De Haan & Flip De Kam, 1998. "Using Survey Data To Test for Ricardian Equivalence," Public Finance Review, , vol. 26(6), pages 565-582, November.
    7. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2017. "Taxation and consumption: evidence from a representative survey of the German population," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(53), pages 5477-5490, November.
    8. Evans, Paul, 1988. "Are Consumers Ricardian? Evidence for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 983-1004, October.
    9. Feldstein, Martin, 1982. "Government deficits and aggregate demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    10. Becker, Torbjorn, 1997. "An investigation of Ricardian equivalence in a common trends model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 405-431, August.
    11. Helmut Stix, 2013. "Does the Broad Public Want to Consolidate Public Debt? – The Role of Fairness and of Policy Credibility," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 102-129, February.
    12. Hayo, Bernd & Neumeier, Florian, 2014. "Political leaders' socioeconomic background and fiscal performance in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 184-205.
    13. repec:pri:cepsud:99blinderkrueger is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    15. Florin O. Bilbiie & Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2013. "Public Debt and Redistribution with Borrowing Constraints," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 64-98, February.
    16. Nicholas S. Souleles & Jonathan A. Parker & David S. Johnson, 2006. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1589-1610, December.
    17. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    18. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2016. "Political Leaders' Socioeconomic Background and Public Budget Deficits: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 55-78, March.
    19. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 120-125, May.
    21. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    22. Thaler, Richard H & Shefrin, H M, 1981. "An Economic Theory of Self-Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 392-406, April.
    23. Bernd Huber & Marco Runkel, 2008. "Hyperbolic Discounting, Public Debt And Balanced Budget Rules," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(5), pages 543-560, November.
    24. Walter Perrin Heller & Ross M. Starr, 1979. "Capital Market Imperfection, the Consumption Function, and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(3), pages 455-463.
    25. Page, Benjamin I. & Shapiro, Robert Y. & Dempsey, Glenn R., 1987. "What Moves Public Opinion?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 23-43, March.
    26. Cardia, Emanuela, 1997. "Replicating Ricardian Equivalence Tests with Simulated Series," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 65-79, March.
    27. Page, Benjamin I. & Shapiro, Robert Y., 1983. "Effects of Public Opinion on Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 175-190, March.
    28. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    29. Artidiatun Adji & James Alm & Paul J. Ferraro, 2009. "Experimental tests of Ricardian equivalence with distortionary versus nondistortionary taxes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2556-2572.
    30. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    31. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2016. "The debt brake in the eyes of the German population," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 139-159, January.
    32. Author-Name: Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 327-397.
    33. Alan Blinder & Alan Krueger, 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," Working Papers 875, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    34. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01052689 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1989. "A Political Theory of Government Debt and Deficits in a Neo-Ricardian Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 713-732, September.
    36. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2009. "Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 374-379, May.
    37. Author-Name: Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 327-397.
    38. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 69-94, May.
    39. Friedrich Heinemann & Tanja Hennighausen, 2012. "Understanding Public Debt Preferences," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(4), pages 406-430, December.
    40. Cadsby, Charles Bram & Frank, Murray, 1991. "Experimental Tests of Ricardian Equivalence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 645-664, October.
    41. Akerlof George A & Kranton Rachel, 2010. "Identity Economics," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-3, June.
    42. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-190, March.
    43. Evans, Paul, 1991. "Is Ricardian Equivalence a Good Approximation?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 626-644, October.
    44. Hayo, Bernd & Uhl, Matthias, 2015. "Taxation and labour supply: Evidence from a representative population survey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 336-346.
    45. James Cloyne, 2013. "Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1507-1528, June.
    46. Slate, Stephen & McKee, Michael & Beck, William & Alm, James, 1995. "Testing Ricardian Equivalence under Uncertainty," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 85(1-2), pages 11-29, October.
    47. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2014. "The macroeconomic effects of legislated tax changes in Germany," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 397-418.
    48. Hayford, Marc, 1989. "Liquidity Constraints and the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 380-387, August.
    49. Roberto Ricciuti, 2003. "Assessing Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 55-78, February.
    50. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier & Matthias Uhl, 2014. "Topics in Fiscal Policy: Evidence from a Representative Survey of the German Population," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201412, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lorenzo Esposito & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2019. "Defaultnomics: Making Sense of the Barro-Ricardo Equivalence in a Financialized World," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_933, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Nektarios Michail & Theodosis Kallenos & Ioanna Evangelou, 2024. "Are agents Ricardian? Evidence from the CBC survey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(3), pages 1147-1152.
    3. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2017. "Taxation and consumption: evidence from a representative survey of the German population," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(53), pages 5477-5490, November.
    4. Roth, Christopher & Settele, Sonja & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Beliefs about public debt and the demand for government spending," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 165-187.
    5. Richard McManus, 2018. "Fiscal Trade‐Offs: The Relationship Between Output and Debt in Policy Interventions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(S1), pages 50-82, September.
    6. Adem Yavuz Elveren & Ünal Töngür & Tristian Myers, 2023. "Military spending and economic growth: A post-Keynesian model," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 18(2), pages 51-65, October.
    7. Sebastian Blesse & Felix Rösel, 2017. "Gebietsreformen: Hoffnungen, Risiken und Alternativen," ifo Working Paper Series 234, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Maarten van Rooij & Jakob de Haan, 2016. "Will helicopter money be spent? New evidence," DNB Working Papers 538, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Ahmet Salih İkiz, 2020. "Testing the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem: Time Series Evidence from Turkey," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Galindo-Martín, Miguel-Ángel & Castaño-Martínez, María-Soledad & Méndez-Picazo, María-Teresa, 2021. "Effects of the pandemic crisis on entrepreneurship and sustainable development," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 345-353.
    11. Antonio Focacci & Angelo Focacci & Alessandro Faenza, 2024. "The lens of the quantity theory of money to disentangle the perceived relationship between money growth and inflation: a PSVAR approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 571-595, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2017. "Taxation and consumption: evidence from a representative survey of the German population," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(53), pages 5477-5490, November.
    2. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2017. "Public Attitudes toward Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from a Representative German Population Survey," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 42-69, February.
    3. Dilla, Diana, 2017. "Staatsverschuldung und Verschuldungsmentalität [Public Debt and Debt Mentality]," MPRA Paper 79432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Roberto Ricciuti, 2003. "Assessing Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 55-78, February.
    5. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2016. "The debt brake in the eyes of the German population," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 139-159, January.
    6. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2016. "Political Leaders' Socioeconomic Background and Public Budget Deficits: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 55-78, March.
    7. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2019. "Public Preferences for Government Spending Priorities: Survey Evidence from Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1-37, November.
    8. Meissner, Thomas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud, 2017. "Learning Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 273-288.
    9. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    10. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2012. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations Are Not Rational?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1283, October.
    11. Nektarios Michail & Theodosis Kallenos & Ioanna Evangelou, 2024. "Are agents Ricardian? Evidence from the CBC survey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(3), pages 1147-1152.
    12. Alfred Haug, 2016. "A New Test of Ricardian Equivalence Using the Narrative Record on Tax Changes," Working Papers 1607, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2016.
    13. Waqas, Muhamad & Awan, Masood Sarwar & Aslam, Muhammad Amir, 2011. "We are living on the cost of our children," MPRA Paper 32044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    15. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal policy and private consumption : Saving decisions : Evidence from Finland," Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland.
    16. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    17. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Ricardian equivalence and the public and private saving nexus in India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(36), pages 3579-3598, August.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1997_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal policy and private consumption: Saving decisions: Evidence from Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland.
    20. António Afonso, 2001. "Government indebtedness and european consumers behaviour," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/12, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    21. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 17(2), pages 148-166, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ricardian equivalence; public debt; private consumption; private saving; survey; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bernd Hayo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vamarde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.