IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/reoecp/v21y2021i3p347-367n4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring monetary policy by money supply and interest rate: evidence from emerging economies

Author

Listed:
  • Bui Trung Thanh

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Szeged. Postal address: 6722, 1 Kálvária sgt, Szeged, Hungary.)

  • Gábor Kiss Dávid

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Szeged. Postal address: 6722, 1 Kálvária sgt, Szeged, Hungary.)

Abstract

Although measuring monetary policy is a contentious issue in the literature, much less evidence on this issue is available for emerging economies. This paper aims to investigate the role of interest rate and money supply in measuring monetary policy in twelve emerging economies that target inflation through the analysis of Granger causality, impulse response function, and forecast error variance decomposition. The empirical results show that both money supply and interest rate are useful predictors for changes in inflation. Moreover, both show a comparable power to explain the variation of inflation. However, a rise in interest rate increases rather than decreases inflation, whereas money supply has a positive and expected effect on inflation. These findings suggest that interest rate may not fully capture the overall stance of monetary policy or interest rate has a limited effect on inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bui Trung Thanh & Gábor Kiss Dávid, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy by money supply and interest rate: evidence from emerging economies," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 347-367, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:reoecp:v:21:y:2021:i:3:p:347-367:n:4
    DOI: 10.2478/revecp-2021-0015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/revecp-2021-0015
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/revecp-2021-0015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. Cover, James P. & VanHoose, David D., 2000. "Political pressures and the choice of the optimal monetary policy instrument," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 325-341.
    3. Huayu Sun & Yue Ma, 2004. "Money and price relationship in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 225-247.
    4. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Singh, Rajesh, 2005. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Instruments in an Economy with Real and Liquidity Shocks," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12355, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    6. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Singh, Rajesh, 2008. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in an economy with real and liquidity shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1273-1311, April.
    7. Andrew Atkeson & V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2007. "On the Optimal Choice of a Monetary Policy Instrument," NBER Working Papers 13398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    9. Christian Glocker & Pascal Towbin, 2012. "Reserve Requirements for Price and Financial Stability: When Are They Effective?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 65-114, March.
    10. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    11. Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea & Mr. David O Coble Fernandez, 2011. "The Monetary Transmission in Dollarized and Non-Dollarized Economies: The Cases of Chile, New Zealand, Peru and Uruguay," IMF Working Papers 2011/087, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
    13. Rajesh Singh & Chetan Subramanian, 2008. "The optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a small open economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 105-137, February.
    14. Gardner, Grant W., 1983. "The choice of monetary policy instruments in an open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 347-354, December.
    15. de Mello, Luiz & Moccero, Diego, 2011. "Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 229-245, February.
    16. Furlani, Luiz Gustavo Cassilatti & Portugal, Marcelo Savino & Laurini, Márcio Poletti, 2010. "Exchange rate movements and monetary policy in Brazil: Econometric and simulation evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 284-295, January.
    17. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    18. Rudra Sensarma & Indranil Bhattacharyya, 2016. "Measuring monetary policy and its impact on the bond market of an emerging economy," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 109-130, July.
    19. Mr. Chorng-Huey Wong & Mr. Eric V. Clifton & Mr. Gene L. Leon, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off," IMF Working Papers 2001/166, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta Kumar Mallick & Ricardo Magalhães Sousa, 2014. "Nonlinear monetary policy reaction functions in large emerging economies: the case of Brazil and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(9), pages 973-984, March.
    21. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    22. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    23. Rajesh Singh & Chetan Subramanian, 2008. "The optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a small open economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 105-137, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bui Thanh Trung, 2022. "Measuring Monetary Policy in Emerging Economy: The Role of Monetary Condition Index," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(6), pages 499-522, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    2. Olivier Habimana, 2019. "Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of the Liquidity Effect and Monetary Neutrality," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 85-110, January.
    3. M. Berument & Selahattin Togay & Afsin Sahin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 649-667, September.
    4. Paweł Młodkowski, 2008. "Kredyt handlowy a polityka pieniężna NBP," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 1-18.
    5. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    6. Nour Wehbe & Bassam Assaf & Salem Darwich, 2018. "Étude de causalité entre la consommation d’électricité et la croissance économique au Liban," Post-Print hal-01944291, HAL.
    7. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006. "Short run and long run causality in time series: inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
    8. Zapata, Hector O. & Gil, Jose M., 1999. "Cointegration and causality in international agricultural economics research," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
    9. Andersson, Björn, 1999. "On the Causality Between Saving and Growth: Long- and Short-Run Dynamics and Country Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1999:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    10. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/158, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Lee, Seungyoon & Park, Jongwook, 2022. "Identifying monetary policy shocks using economic forecasts in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    12. Lutz, Chandler, 2015. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 89-105.
    13. Jonathan B. Hill, 2007. "Efficient tests of long-run causation in trivariate VAR processes with a rolling window study of the money-income relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 747-765.
    14. Mohamed Douch, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy and Financial Crisis," Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, Cankaya University, Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 1(7), pages 1-35, May.
    15. Dagher, Leila & Yacoubian, Talar, 2012. "The causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Lebanon," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 795-801.
    16. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    17. B. Mojon, 1999. "Monetary policy under a quasi-fixed exchange rate regime. The case of France between 1987 and 1996," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(211), pages 401-430.
    18. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Identifying The Effects Of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 268-296, April.
    19. Knut Are Aastveit & Gisle James Natvik & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy," Working Paper 2013/17, Norges Bank.
    20. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Export performance and economic growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-33, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy instruments; interest rate; money supply; emerging economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:reoecp:v:21:y:2021:i:3:p:347-367:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.