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Fay-Herriot Model-Based Prediction Alternatives for Estimating Households with Emigrated Members

Author

Listed:
  • Fúquene-Patiño Jairo

    (UC Davis, Department of Statistics, Davis, California, 95616–5270, U.S.A.)

  • Cristancho César

    (National Department of Statistics, Population projections division, Bogota, Colombia.)

  • Ospina Mariana

    (National Department of Statistics, Population projections division, Bogota, Colombia.)

  • Gonzalez Domingo Morales

    (The Miguel Hernández University of Elche (UMH), Centro de Investigación Operativa, Departamento de Estadistica, Matemáticas, Avenida de la Universidad s/n ELCHE, 03202, Spain.)

Abstract

This article proposes a new methodology for estimating the proportions of households that had experience of international migration at the municipal level in Colombia. The Colombian National Statistical Office usually produces estimations of internal migration based on the results of population censuses, but there is a lack of disaggregated information about the main small areas of origin of the population that emigrates from Colombia. The proposed methodology uses frequentist and Bayesian approaches based on a Fay-Herriot model and is illustrated by one example with a dependent variable from the Demographic and Health Survey 2015 and covariables available from the population census 2005. The proposed alternative produces proportion estimates that are consistent with sample sizes and the main internal immigration trends in Colombia. Additionally, the estimated coefficients of variation are lower than 20% for municipalities for both frequentist and Bayesian approaches and large demographically-relevant capital cities and therefore estimates may be considered to be reliable. Finally, we illustrate how the proposed alternative leads to important reductions of the estimated coefficients of variations for the areas with very small sample sizes.

Suggested Citation

  • Fúquene-Patiño Jairo & Cristancho César & Ospina Mariana & Gonzalez Domingo Morales, 2021. "Fay-Herriot Model-Based Prediction Alternatives for Estimating Households with Emigrated Members," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(3), pages 771-789, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:offsta:v:37:y:2021:i:3:p:771-789:n:11
    DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Raymer & Andrei Rogers, 2007. "Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(2), pages 199-223, May.
    2. Jan Pablo Burgard & María Dolores Esteban & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2020. "A Fay–Herriot model when auxiliary variables are measured with error," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(1), pages 166-195, March.
    3. Monica Pratesi & Nicola Salvati, 2008. "Small area estimation: the EBLUP estimator based on spatially correlated random area effects," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 17(1), pages 113-141, February.
    4. Yolanda Marhuenda & Isabel Molina & Domingo Morales & J. N. K. Rao, 2017. "Poverty mapping in small areas under a twofold nested error regression model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1111-1136, October.
    5. Tomáš Hobza & Domingo Morales & Laureano Santamaría, 2018. "Small area estimation of poverty proportions under unit-level temporal binomial-logit mixed models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(2), pages 270-294, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bijak Jakub & Bryant Johan & Gołata Elżbieta & Smallwood Steve, 2021. "Preface," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(3), pages 533-541, September.

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