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The use of a three‐level M‐quantile model to map poverty at local administrative unit 1 in Poland

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  • Stefano Marchetti
  • Maciej Beręsewicz
  • Nicola Salvati
  • Marcin Szymkowiak
  • Łukasz Wawrowski

Abstract

A three‐level M‐quantile model for small area estimation is proposed. The methodology represents an efficient alternative to prediction by using a three‐level linear mixed model in the presence of outliers and it is based on an extension of M‐quantile regression. A modified method of the traditional M‐quantile (two‐level) approach for poverty estimation is also proposed. In addition, an estimator of the mean‐squared prediction error is described, which is based on a bootstrap procedure. The methodology proposed, as well as the three‐level empirical best predictor, are applied to Polish European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions and census data to estimate poverty at local administrative unit 1 level in Poland, i.e. the level for which the Central Statistical Office of Poland has not published any official estimates to date.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Marchetti & Maciej Beręsewicz & Nicola Salvati & Marcin Szymkowiak & Łukasz Wawrowski, 2018. "The use of a three‐level M‐quantile model to map poverty at local administrative unit 1 in Poland," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(4), pages 1077-1104, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:181:y:2018:i:4:p:1077-1104
    DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12349
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marchetti, Stefano & Tzavidis, Nikos & Pratesi, Monica, 2012. "Non-parametric bootstrap mean squared error estimation for M-quantile estimators of small area averages, quantiles and poverty indicators," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2889-2902.
    2. Chris Elbers & Jean O. Lanjouw & Peter Lanjouw, 2003. "Micro--Level Estimation of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 355-364, January.
    3. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    4. Bates, Douglas & Mächler, Martin & Bolker, Ben & Walker, Steve, 2015. "Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 67(i01).
    5. Nikos Tzavidis & Nicola Salvati & Monica Pratesi & Ray Chambers, 2008. "M-quantile models with application to poverty mapping," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 17(3), pages 393-411, July.
    6. Ray Chambers & Nikos Tzavidis, 2006. "M-quantile models for small area estimation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(2), pages 255-268, June.
    7. Ray Chambers & Hukum Chandra & Nicola Salvati & Nikos Tzavidis, 2014. "Outlier robust small area estimation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 76(1), pages 47-69, January.
    8. Bradley Efron, 2004. "The Estimation of Prediction Error: Covariance Penalties and Cross-Validation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 619-632, January.
    9. Yolanda Marhuenda & Isabel Molina & Domingo Morales & J. N. K. Rao, 2017. "Poverty mapping in small areas under a twofold nested error regression model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1111-1136, October.
    10. Sonja Greven & Thomas Kneib, 2010. "On the behaviour of marginal and conditional AIC in linear mixed models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 97(4), pages 773-789.
    11. Jonathan Haughton & Shahidur R. Khandker, 2009. "Handbook on Poverty and Inequality," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11985.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ann-Kristin Kreutzmann, 2018. "Estimation of sample quantiles: challenges and issues in the context of income and wealth distributions [Die Schätzung von Quantilen: Herausforderungen und Probleme im Kontext von Einkommens- und V," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 12(3), pages 245-270, December.

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