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Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey: A Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Özcan Ceyhun Can

    (Faculty of Tourism, Necmettin Erbakan University, Konya, Turkey)

  • Uçak Harun

    (Faculty of Business, Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Alanya, Turkey)

Abstract

Tourism has been one of the fastest-growing sectors in the world. Especially developed countries have been major markets for tourism destinations over the decades. Furthermore, the outbound tourism demand in emerging markets has increased rapidly in recent years. This study aims to investigate the determinants of Turkey’s outbound tourism demand by using the data from 1960 to 2013. For this purpose, the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model is used as an empirical analysis. This model classifies the time period into different regimes in order to obtain more robust results. Finally, our findings show that Turkish citizens’ outbound visits have been influenced by income and the exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Özcan Ceyhun Can & Uçak Harun, 2016. "Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey: A Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Approach," Czech Journal of Tourism, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 59-72, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:cjotou:v:5:y:2016:i:2:p:59-72:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/cjot-2016-0004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Outbound tourism; tourism sector; Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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