IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v39y2014icp41-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A cointegration analysis of bilateral air travel flows: The case of international travel to and from the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Chi, Junwook

Abstract

Demand for international air travel has risen over the past decade causing international visitation to the US to reach a record high in 2012. This paper assesses the dynamic impacts of GDP, exchange rate, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks on bilateral air travel flows between the US and its 11 major travel and trading partners. An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach is employed to estimate short- and long-run relationships between variables. Long-run results demonstrate foreign GDP as the major determinant of demand for inbound travel to the US and US GDP is a crucial factor affecting demand for outbound travel from the US. These findings support a strong linkage between economic growth and demand for international air travel. The real exchange rate has relatively little impact on the bilateral air travel flows. The US dollar appreciation against foreign currencies is found to reduce demand for inbound travel to the US, while having mixed effects on outbound travel from the US. In the short-run, economic growth tends to be a primary factor influencing international travel flows to and from the US. The 9/11 market shock has a detrimental short- and long-run effect on the bilateral air travel flows, implying that the impact of 9/11 is prolonged in international air travel markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi, Junwook, 2014. "A cointegration analysis of bilateral air travel flows: The case of international travel to and from the United States," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 41-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:41-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.03.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699714000416
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.03.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Button, Kenneth & Taylor, Samantha, 2000. "International air transportation and economic development," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 209-222.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 2000. "An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 611-624.
    5. Lai, Sue Ling & Lu, Whei-Li, 2005. "Impact analysis of September 11 on air travel demand in the USA," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 455-458.
    6. N. Kulendran & Kenneth Wilson, 2000. "Is there a relationship between international trade and international travel?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1001-1009.
    7. Lim, Christine, 2004. "The major determinants of Korean outbound travel to Australia," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 477-485.
    8. Abed, Seraj Y. & Ba-Fail, Abdullah O. & Jasimuddin, Sajjad M., 2001. "An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 143-148.
    9. Scott Blunk & David Clark & James McGibany, 2006. "Evaluating the long-run impacts of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on US domestic airline travel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 363-370.
    10. Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of the Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 83-97, March.
    11. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Exchange rate sensitivity of Japan's bilateral trade flows," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    13. Ito, Harumi & Lee, Darin, 2005. "Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. airline demand," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 75-95.
    14. Graham, Anne, 2000. "Demand for leisure air travel and limits to growth," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 109-118.
    15. Chi, Junwook & Baek, Jungho, 2013. "Dynamic relationship between air transport demand and economic growth in the United States: A new look," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 257-260.
    16. Seetaram, Neelu, 2012. "Immigration and international inbound tourism: Empirical evidence from Australia," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1535-1543.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tsui, Wai Hong Kan & Fu, Xiaowen & Yin, Chuanzhong & Zhang, Huaxin, 2021. "Hong Kong's aviation and tourism growth - An empirical investigation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Vandermotten, Christian, 2022. "Do scale and the type of markets matter? Revisiting the determinants of passenger air services worldwide," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Boonekamp, Thijs & Zuidberg, Joost & Burghouwt, Guillaume, 2018. "Determinants of air travel demand: The role of low-cost carriers, ethnic links and aviation-dependent employment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 18-28.
    4. Li, Yongling & Wang, Jiaoe & Huang, Jie & Chen, Zhuo, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on domestic air transportation in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 95-103.
    5. Kağan Albayrak, Muhammed Bilge & Özcan, İsmail Çağrı & Can, Raif & Dobruszkes, Frédéric, 2020. "The determinants of air passenger traffic at Turkish airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Frédéric Dobruszkes & Christian Vandermotten, 2022. "Do scale and the type of markets matter? Revisiting the determinants of passenger air services worldwide," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/336304, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Hanson, Daniel & Toru Delibasi, Tuba & Gatti, Matteo & Cohen, Shamai, 2022. "How do changes in economic activity affect air passenger traffic? The use of state-dependent income elasticities to improve aviation forecasts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Tirtha, Sudipta Dey & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2024. "Accommodating spatio-temporal dependency in airline demand modeling," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Tirtha, Sudipta Dey & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2023. "Understanding the factors affecting airport level demand (arrivals and departures) using a novel modeling approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    10. Wang, Sen & Gao, Yi, 2021. "A literature review and citation analyses of air travel demand studies published between 2010 and 2020," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    11. Huang-Ping Yen & Po-Chi Chen & Kung-Cheng Ho, 2021. "Analyzing Destination Accessibility From the Perspective of Efficiency Among Tourism Origin Countries," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    12. Dey Tirtha, Sudipta & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2022. "An airport level framework for examining the impact of COVID-19 on airline demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 169-181.
    13. Hakim, Md Mahbubul & Merkert, Rico, 2016. "The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 120-127.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Sen & Gao, Yi, 2021. "A literature review and citation analyses of air travel demand studies published between 2010 and 2020," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Emmanuel Ziramba, 2013. "Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand in South Africa: an Econometric Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(5), pages 260-267.
    3. Junwook, Chi & Jungho, Baek, 2013. "Dynamic Effects Of Economic Growth On U.s. Air Passenger And Freight Services," 54th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Annapolis, Maryland, March 21-23, 2013 206948, Transportation Research Forum.
    4. Chi, Junwook & Baek, Jungho, 2013. "Dynamic relationship between air transport demand and economic growth in the United States: A new look," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 257-260.
    5. Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of the Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 83-97, March.
    6. Chien-Ming Wang & Su-Lan Pan & Alastair M. Morrison & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2022. "The dynamic linkages among outbound tourism, economic growth, and international trade: empirical evidence from China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Hanson, Daniel & Toru Delibasi, Tuba & Gatti, Matteo & Cohen, Shamai, 2022. "How do changes in economic activity affect air passenger traffic? The use of state-dependent income elasticities to improve aviation forecasts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Frédéric Dobruszkes & Christian Vandermotten, 2022. "Do scale and the type of markets matter? Revisiting the determinants of passenger air services worldwide," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/336304, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Vandermotten, Christian, 2022. "Do scale and the type of markets matter? Revisiting the determinants of passenger air services worldwide," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Benoit Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2010. "Forecasting air traffic and corresponding jet-fuel demande until 2025," Working Papers hal-02489878, HAL.
    11. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    12. Zhang, Yu & Zhang, Sufang, 2018. "The impacts of GDP, trade structure, exchange rate and FDI inflows on China's carbon emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 347-353.
    13. Ahmed, Khalid, 2015. "The sheer scale of China’s urban renewal and CO2 emissions: Multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship and short-run dynamics," MPRA Paper 71035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    15. Chor Foon Tang, 2014. "The effect of real wages and inflation on labour productivity in Malaysia," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 311-322, May.
    16. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    17. Nektarios A. Michail, 2018. "Estimating a Bilateral J‐curve between the UK and the Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(6), pages 757-769, December.
    18. Alola, Andrew Adewale & Akadiri, Seyi Saint, 2021. "Clean energy development in the United States amidst augmented socioeconomic aspects and country-specific policies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 221-230.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Marina Kovyryalova, 2008. "Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Trade Flows: Evidence from Commodity Trade between the United States and the United Kingdom," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(8), pages 1097-1128, August.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muge Karacal, 2006. "The demand for money in Turkey and currency substitution," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 635-642.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:41-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.