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Have US external imbalances been determined at home or abroad?

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  • Makin, Anthony J.
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the United States saving-investment imbalance and long-term real interest rates using a new international borrowing and lending framework. It first establishes how domestic or international factors may primarily influence the US external imbalance and interest rates over any given time before showing that the current account and real long term interest rate share a positive and statistically significant co-integrating relationship based on data from the mid-1980's. The results suggest that while in the pre-Asian financial crisis period (1985:01-1996:04) US external deficits and long term interest rates were mainly determined by domestic factors, external factors beyond the control of domestic policymakers dominated from 1997:01-2004:04.

Suggested Citation

  • Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Have US external imbalances been determined at home or abroad?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 520-531, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:25:y:2008:i:3:p:520-531
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    Cited by:

    1. Makin, Anthony J. & Rohde, Nicholas, 2012. "Has Australia's floating exchange rate regime been optimal?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1338-1343.
    2. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.
    3. E Lau & S Abu Mansor & C-H Puah, 2010. "Revival of the Twin Deficits in Asian Crisis-affected Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(1), pages 29-54, March.
    4. Duncan, Roberto, 2015. "A threshold model of the US current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 270-280.
    5. Evan LAU & Nelson FU, 2011. "Financial And Current Account Interrelationship: An Empirical Test," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 34-42.

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