IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/usg/auswrt/201869011-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Swiss foreign assets hedge the business cycle?

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Stoffels
  • Cédric Tille

Abstract

While Switzerland's net creditor position is sizable, it has long remained steady despite large and persistent current account surpluses. This pattern reflects valuation losses on Swiss foreign assets driven by movements in exchange rates and assets prices. We compute estimates of these valuation effects and the associated rates of returns on Swiss external assets and liabilities. While Switzerland benefits from a modest advantage in terms of yields (interest and dividends in percent of holdings), we show that this has been dwarfed by valuation losses driven by the strengthening of the Swiss franc, even before the crisis. We then assess the extent to which the return on assets and liabilities (including capital gains) provides a hedge against movements in Swiss GDP and the purchasing power of income. While we find little evidence of such a hedge at a quarterly frequency, financial returns provide some offset for business cycle movements at the horizon of a year. This hedging property has strengthened since 2010 and is more pronounced for privately held assets and liabilities than for the fast-growing holdings of reserves by the Swiss National Bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Stoffels & Cédric Tille, 2018. "Do Swiss foreign assets hedge the business cycle?," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 69(01), pages 1-40, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:usg:auswrt:2018:69:01:1-40
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/auswrt/AW_69-01__01_Stoffels-Tille.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2010. "The long or short of it: Determinants of foreign currency exposure in external balance sheets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 33-44, January.
    2. Agust n S. B n trix & Philip R. Lane, "undated". "Cross-Country Exposures to the Swiss Franc," Trinity Economics Papers tep0116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    3. Raphael A. Auer & Cedric Tille, 2016. "The banking sector and the Swiss financial account during the financial and European debt crises:," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(02), pages 69-97, August.
    4. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    5. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E., 2013. "On returns differentials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-25.
    6. Pınar Yeşin, 2015. "Capital Flow Waves to and from Switzerland before and after the Financial Crisis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(I), pages 27-75, March.
    7. Tille, Cédric, 2017. "The changing international linkages of Switzerland: An overview," Kiel Working Papers 2088, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Philip R. Lane, "undated". "Cross-Country Exposures to the Swiss Franc," Trinity Economics Papers tep0116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Peter Kugler & Beatrice Weder, 2004. "International Portfolio Holdings and Swiss Franc Asset Returns," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(III), pages 301-325, September.
    10. Kugler, Peter & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2005. "Why Are Returns on Swiss Franc Assets So Low? Rare Events May Solve the Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Lorenz Emter & Martin Schmitz & Marcel Tirpák, 2019. "Cross-border banking in the EU since the crisis: What is driving the great retrenchment?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(2), pages 287-326, May.
    12. Fischer, Andreas M. & Groeger, Henrike & Sauré, Philip & Yeşin, Pınar, 2019. "Current account adjustment and retained earnings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 246-259.
    13. Rey, Hélène & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2013. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances and Valuation Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 9566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    15. Cédric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
    16. Dr. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "Have investors been looking for exposure to specific countries since the global financial crisis? - Insights from the Swiss franc bond market," Working Papers 2014-13, Swiss National Bank.
    17. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2022. "A natural level of capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Benedetta Bianchi & Giovanna Bua, 2020. "Foreign exchange derivatives and currency mismatch in Irish investment funds," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Bridging measurement challenges and analytical needs of external statistics: evolution or revolution?, volume 52, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McCauley, Robert N., 2015. "Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Philip R. Lane, "undated". "Cross-Country Exposures to the Swiss Franc," Trinity Economics Papers tep0116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    3. Agust n S. B n trix & Philip R. Lane, "undated". "Cross-Country Exposures to the Swiss Franc," Trinity Economics Papers tep0116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    4. van Hombeeck, Carlos Eduardo, 2020. "An exorbitant privilege in the first age of international financial integration?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Devereux, Michael B. & Saito, Makoto & Yu, Changhua, 2020. "International capital flows, portfolio composition, and the stability of external imbalances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Ricardo Hausmann & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations," CID Working Papers 124, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    7. Herkenhoff, Philipp & Sauré, Philip, 2021. "How expected inflation distorts the current account and the valuation effect," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    9. Le, Dieu Thanh & Park, Hail, 2020. "Valuation effects of capital inflows: Evidence from emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Agustín Bénétrix & Beren Demirölmez & Martin Schmitz, 2024. "The Shock Absorbing Role of Cross-border Investments: Net Positions Versus Currency Composition," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 363-394, April.
    11. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    12. Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Jaewoo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2015. "The valuation channel of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 86-114.
    13. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2017. "Current Account Deficits During Heightened Risk: Menacing or Mitigating?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(601), pages 571-623, May.
    14. Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2015. "Japan’s exorbitant privilege," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-61.
    15. Mileva, Mariya, 2015. "Valuation effects and long-run real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 390-408.
    16. Bergant, Katharina, 2021. "The role of stock-flow adjustment during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    17. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 129-143, January.
    18. Turrini, Alessandro & Zeugner, Stefan, 2019. "Benchmarks for net international investment positions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 149-164.
    19. Devendra Kumar Jain & Rup Singh & Henali Kumar & Nikeel Kumar & Arvind Patel, 2022. "Why does currency denomination in external liabilities of small island developing states matter? Evidence from Fiji," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 447-464, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    valuation effects; international risk sharing;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:auswrt:2018:69:01:1-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stefan Legge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/siasrch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.