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Economic Tomography: Opportunity to Foresee and Respond to Socio-Economic Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandr Kuklin

    (Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Gennadiy Bystray
  • Sergey Okhotnikov

    (UrFU)

  • Elena Chistova

    (Institute of Economic - Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

In the article, the approach based on the authors’ hypothesis is considered: the development of Russia has specific characteristics (on the one hand, its size, mentality and certain closed nature of its economy, on the other hand, the considerable dominating resource and human potential, and, as the result, its real role in the world economic community). The diagnostics of these characteristics (at the level of the individual’s welfare and territory of accommodation) reveals crises, estimates threats to region socio-economic development at early stages and helps to evaluate the state of a region for 3-5 years. In other words, managers have time necessary for rapid response to the crisis phenomena and administrative mistakes, for decreasing the impact of the arising threats. The purpose of the article is to present the theoretical and methodological tools of the appearing threats recognition at their early stages, which allows to enter the crisis period with smaller losses. Computational experiments to classify the prior socio-economic crises have been conducted (9 possible options are considered), the trajectories of change of the main indicators of the individual’s welfare and territory of residence influenced by various factors are digitized. On the basis of the proposed approach (named as the economic tomography), the attempt of the comprehensive assessment of the state of Russian typical representative regions is made.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandr Kuklin & Gennadiy Bystray & Sergey Okhotnikov & Elena Chistova, 2015. "Economic Tomography: Opportunity to Foresee and Respond to Socio-Economic Crises," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 40-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2015:i:4:p:40-53
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aleksandr Kuklin & Alexey Naydenov & Natalya Nikulina & Tatiana Ponomaryova, 2014. "Transformation of theoretical-methodological approaches and methodical tools of the individual and territory welfare diagnostics. Part 1. From spreading to the alternative diagnostics approaches (back," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 22-36.
    2. L. C. G. Rogers, 1997. "Arbitrage with Fractional Brownian Motion," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 95-105, January.
    3. Benoit B. Mandelbrot, 1972. "Statistical Methodology for Nonperiodic Cycles: From the Covariance To R/S Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 259-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nadezhda Necheuhinа & Olga Mustafina & Lyudmila Kuklina, 2018. "Competitiveness of Various Segments of the Regional Consumer Market," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 836-850.
    2. Aleksandr Kuklin & Sergey Okhotnikov & Lev Korshunov, 2016. "Architectonics of the Analysis and Information System “Anti-Crisisâ€," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 371-382.
    3. Vitaliy Lazhentsev, 2018. "Socio-Economic Space and Territorial Development of the North and the Arctic of Russia," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 353-365.
    4. V. Shestak P. & E. Moreva I. & I. Tyutyunnik G. & В. Шестак П. & Е. Морева Л. & И. Тютюнник Г., 2019. "Финансовое управление инновационной активностью // Financial Management of Innovative Activity," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 23(6), pages 63-75.
    5. Olga Romanova & Vladimir Strovskiy, 2016. "Development of the Methodology for the Economic Evaluation of Managerial Decisions as a Factor of Economic Security Increase," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 937-950.

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