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Long Term Dependence in Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher F. Baum

    (Boston College)

  • John Barkoulas

    (Boston College)

Abstract

This paper investigates the presence of fractal dynamics in stock returns. We improve upon existing literature in two ways: i) instead of rescaled-range analysis, we use the more efficient semi- nonparametric procedure suggested by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (GPH, 1983), and ii) to ensure robustness, we apply the GPH test to a variety of aggregate and sectoral stock indices and individual companies' stock returns series at both daily and monthly frequencies. Our results indicate that fractal structure is not exhibited by stock indices, but it may characterize the behavior of some individual stock returns series.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 1996. "Long Term Dependence in Stock Returns," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 314., Boston College Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:314
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    File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/wp314.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Geweke & Susan Porter‐Hudak, 1983. "The Estimation And Application Of Long Memory Time Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 221-238, July.
    2. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-1313, September.
    3. Victor Chow, K. & Denning, Karen C. & Ferris, Stephen & Noronha, Gregory, 1995. "Long-term and short-term price memory in the stock market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 287-293, September.
    4. Uwe Hassler, 1993. "Regression Of Spectral Estimators With Fractionally Integrated Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 369-380, July.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
    6. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
    7. Benoit B. Mandelbrot, 1972. "Statistical Methodology for Nonperiodic Cycles: From the Covariance To R/S Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 259-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock returns; long memory; fractal dynamics; spectral regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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