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The Impact of Weather Conditions on Economic Activity in Ukraine

Author

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  • Hanna Yatsenko

    (National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
    National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

This article explores the impact of weather conditions on core sectors of the Ukrainian economy and the composite index of economic activity in Ukraine. We build autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models using statistical data provided by the Central Geophysical Observatory named after Boris Sreznevsky (CGO) and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period 2004-2019. The obtained outcomes show that fluctuations in the air temperature and precipitation are significant determinants of output in different sectors (specifically agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and energy). Therefore, the inclusion of weather conditions into models may potentially improve the modeling properties and forecasting of economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanna Yatsenko, 2020. "The Impact of Weather Conditions on Economic Activity in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 249, pages 25-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:journl:y:2020:i:249:p:25-49
    DOI: 10.26531/vnbu2020.249.03
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    File URL: https://journal.bank.gov.ua/en/article/2020/249/03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    autoregressive distributed lag model; weather conditions;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth

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