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Interpreting Trends in Intergenerational Mobility

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  • Martin Nybom
  • Jan Stuhler

Abstract

Studying a dynamic model of intergenerational transmission, we show that past events affect contemporaneous trends in intergenerational mobility. Structural changes may generate long-lasting mobility trends that can be nonmonotonic, and declining mobility may reflect past gains rather than a recent deterioration of equality of opportunity. We provide two applications. We first show that changes in the parent generation have partially offset the effect of rising skill premia on income mobility in the United States. We then show that a Swedish school reform reduced the transmission of inequalities in the directly affected generation but increased their persistence in the next.

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  • Martin Nybom & Jan Stuhler, 2024. "Interpreting Trends in Intergenerational Mobility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(8), pages 2531-2570.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/729582
    DOI: 10.1086/729582
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jørgen Modalsli & Kelly Vosters, 2024. "Spillover Bias in Multigenerational Income Regressions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(3), pages 743-776.
    3. Maystadt, Jean-François & Migali, Giuseppe, 2021. "The transmission of health across 7 generations in China, 1789–1906," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Uta Bolt & Eric French & Jamie Hentall-MacCuish & Cormac O'Dea, 2021. "The intergenerational elasticity of earnings: exploring the mechanisms," IFS Working Papers W21/07, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Markussen, Simen & Røed, Knut, 2017. "Egalitarianism under Pressure: Toward Lower Economic Mobility in the Knowledge Economy?," IZA Discussion Papers 10664, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Berger, Thor & Engzell, Per & Eriksson, Björn & Molinder, Jakob, 2023. "Social Mobility in Sweden before the Welfare State," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 431-463, June.
    7. Chen, Yuyu & Naidu, Suresh & Yu, Tinghua & Yuchtman, Noam, 2015. "Intergenerational mobility and institutional change in 20th century China," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 44-73.
    8. Martin Nybom & Jan Stuhler, 2019. "Steady-state assumptions in intergenerational mobility research," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(1), pages 77-97, March.
    9. Margo, Robert A., 2016. "Obama, Katrina, and the Persistence of Racial Inequality," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 301-341, June.
    10. Jonathan Davis & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2017. "The Decline in Intergenerational Mobility After 1980," Working Paper Series WP-2017-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 14 Jan 2022.
    11. Charles M. Beach, 2016. "Changing income inequality: A distributional paradigm for Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(4), pages 1229-1292, November.
    12. Jørgen Modalsli, 2023. "Multigenerational Persistence: Evidence from 146 Years of Administrative Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 929-961.
    13. Yu-Wei Luke Chu & Ming-Jen Lin, 2020. "Intergenerational earnings mobility in Taiwan: 1990–2010," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 11-45, July.
    14. Mario Alloza, 2021. "The impact of taxes on income mobility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(4), pages 794-854, August.
    15. Chu, Luke Yu-Wei & Lin, Ming-Jen, 2016. "Economic development and intergenerational earnings mobility: Evidence from Taiwan," Working Paper Series 19495, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    16. Junwu, Xu & Zhaoxiong, Chen & Junjie, Wu, 2022. "Return of migrant workers, educational investment in children and intergenerational mobility in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 997-1009.

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