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Estimating the Effect of America's Most Wanted: A Duration Analysis of Wanted Fugitives

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  • Miles, Thomas J

Abstract

Fugitives fleeing criminal prosecution and punishment are a major obstacle in the effort to fight crime, and conventional wisdom holds that publicity, such as the television program America's Most Wanted, successfully locates wanted fugitives. This paper estimates a hazard model of fugitive flight using a sample of recently pursued fugitives and tests whether a fugitive's appearance on the television program America's Most Wanted hastens apprehension. The estimates show that broadcasting a fugitive's profile on America's Most Wanted substantially raises the apprehension hazard by a factor of seven and shortens the expected fugitive spell by roughly a fourth. The estimates also suggest that the television program provides a net social benefit. A fugitive's demographic and offense characteristics also correlate with the apprehension hazard.

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  • Miles, Thomas J, 2005. "Estimating the Effect of America's Most Wanted: A Duration Analysis of Wanted Fugitives," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 281-306, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:y:2005:v:48:i:1:p:281-306
    DOI: 10.1086/428718
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    2. Steven D. Levitt, 2002. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1244-1250, September.
    3. Rosen, Sherwin, 2007. "Studies in Labor Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226726304.
    4. Sueyoshi, Glenn T., 1992. "Semiparametric proportional hazards estimation of competing risks models with time-varying covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 25-58.
    5. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
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    Cited by:

    1. Catherine rodr�guez & fabio sánchez, 2012. "Armed Conflict Exposure, Human Capital Investments, And Child Labor: Evidence From Colombia," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 161-184, April.
    2. Thomas J. Miles, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the FBI's Ten Most Wanted," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 275-308, June.
    3. Howard Bodenhorn & Carolyn Moehling & Gregory N. Price, 2012. "Short Criminals: Stature and Crime in Early America," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 393-419.
    4. Bierie, David M., 2014. "Fugitives in the United States," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 327-337.

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