IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/trp/01jefa/jefa0051.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock Returns and Cash Flows: A New Asset Pricing Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sonia Di TOMASO
  • Denis Marco MONTAGNA
  • Antonio AMENDOLA

    (University of Pavia
    University of Pavia
    University of Pavia)

Abstract

This study is focused on a non-conventional profitability measure, at least in terms of assets pricing models, where dividends or profits are widely used. The attention is focused on a proxy measure of Operating Cash Flows: the "Ebitda after Capex". The relationship returns – cash flows' volatility has been examined through an empirical analysis conducted on the stocks of the S&P500 Index combining the main quantitative and statistical approach with a qualitative overview respect the macroeconomic background. Starting from a correlation rolling window approach, three different regressions techniques have been implemented; the simple Ordinary Least Squares regressions (OLS), the linear Quantile (LQR) regression and the Multiple regression model (MLR), all performed at different levels in terms of stocks (QoQ and YoY) and sectors (MoM, QoQ, YoY). The cross-sectional and time-series results support the effects of cash flow volatility on the stocks' performance and highlighted its sensitivity respect not only the different short-term and long-term horizons, but also in terms of sector' exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonia Di TOMASO & Denis Marco MONTAGNA & Antonio AMENDOLA, 2021. "Stock Returns and Cash Flows: A New Asset Pricing Approach," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 5(2), pages 85-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:trp:01jefa:jefa0051
    DOI: 10.1991/jefa.v5i2.a47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ojs.tripaledu.com/index.php/jefa/article/download/69/80
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1991/jefa.v5i2.a47?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    2. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    3. Metrick, Andrew, 2019. "The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy A: Overview," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 1(1), pages 39-62, March.
    4. Linh Nghiem, 2015. "Risk-return relationship: An empirical study of different statistical methods for estimating the Capital Asset Pricing Models (CAPM) and the Fama-French model for large cap stocks," Papers 1511.07101, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "U.S. shale oil production and WTI prices behaviour," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 12-19.
    2. Onishchenko, Olena & Zhao, Jing & Kongahawatte, Sampath & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2024. "Investor heterogeneity and anchoring-induced momentum," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    3. Tim Brailsford & Clive Gaunt & Michael A O’Brien, 2012. "Size and book-to-market factors in Australia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(2), pages 261-281, August.
    4. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    5. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    6. Lips, Johannes, 2018. "Debt and the Oil Industry - Analysis on the Firm and Production Level," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181504, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Hui, Kai Wai & Nelson, Karen K. & Yeung, P. Eric, 2016. "On the persistence and pricing of industry-wide and firm-specific earnings, cash flows, and accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 185-202.
    8. Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2013. "Market Cycles and the Performance of Relative Strength Strategies," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 263-290, June.
    9. Liu, Siqi & Yin, Chao & Zeng, Yeqin, 2021. "Abnormal investment and firm performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Ibrahim Alshomaly & Walid Shawaqfeh, 2020. "The Effect of Export Diversification on the Economic Growth of West-Asian Arab Countries," Journal of Social Sciences (COES&RJ-JSS), , vol. 9(2), pages 429-450, April.
    11. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2016/339, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    12. Evan Dudley & Niclas Andrén & Håkan Jankensgård, 2022. "How do firms hedge in financial distress?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1324-1351, July.
    13. Andreas G. Koutoupis & Christos G. Kampouris & Athanasia V. Sakellaridou, 2022. "Can Financial Strength Indicators Form A Profitable Investment Strategy? The Case Of F-Score in Europe," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 355-372, September.
    14. Berggrun, Luis & Cardona, Emilio & Lizarzaburu, Edmundo, 2020. "Firm profitability and expected stock returns: Evidence from Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin, 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Weltkonjunktur zieht allmählich an," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Pätäri, Eero & Karell, Ville & Luukka, Pasi & Yeomans, Julian S, 2018. "Comparison of the multicriteria decision-making methods for equity portfolio selection: The U.S. evidence," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(2), pages 655-672.
    17. Lin, Hai & Tao, Xinyuan & Wu, Chunchi, 2022. "Forecasting earnings with combination of analyst forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 133-159.
    18. Omid Asadollah & Linda Schwartz Carmy & Md. Rezwanul Hoque & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3450-3486, August.
    19. Xiaofei Zhao, 2017. "Does Information Intensity Matter for Stock Returns? Evidence from Form 8-K Filings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1382-1404, May.
    20. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Volatility; Return; Quantile Regression; Cash Flow; Financial Modelling; CAPM; Fama-French Models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:trp:01jefa:jefa0051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: David Simon Hall (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.