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Endogenous Election Timing In Majoritarian Parliamentary Systems

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  • Alastair Smith

Abstract

The election date is an endogenous choice in many parliamentary systems. This paper explores when governments call elections and how the timing of an election influences the electoral result. Governments have an incentive to behave opportunistically, calling elections at a time when they are performing well. However, the choice of election date reveals information about the government. Specifically, early elections indicate that a government has little faith in its ability to perform well in the future. The analysis is expanded to consider changes in government composition, political business cycles, informational asymmetries and the role of opposition campaigning.

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  • Alastair Smith, 1996. "Endogenous Election Timing In Majoritarian Parliamentary Systems," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 85-110, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:8:y:1996:i:2:p:85-110
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0343.1996.tb00123.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. Bierbrauer, Felix & Mechtenberg, Lydia, 2008. "Winners and losers of early elections: On the welfare implications of political blockades and early elections," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-071, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    3. Alastair Smith, 1998. "Fighting Battles, Winning Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(3), pages 301-320, June.
    4. Marcelin, Isaac & Stephen, Sheryl-Ann K. & Fanta, Fassil & Tecklezion, Mussie, 2019. "Political regimes, investment and electoral uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 580-599.
    5. Voia, Marcel-Cristian & Ferris, J. Stephen, 2013. "Do business cycle peaks predict election calls in Canada?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 102-118.
    6. André Blais & Elisabeth Gidengil & Neil Nevitte & Richard Nadeau, 2004. "Do (Some) Canadian Voters Punish a Prime Minister for Calling a Snap Election?," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 52(2), pages 307-323, June.
    7. J. Stephen Ferris & Derek E. H. Olmstead, 2012. "Fixed versus Flexible Election Cycles: Explaining innovation in the timing of Canada’s Election Cycle," Carleton Economic Papers 12-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Dec 2016.
    8. George Tridimas, 2017. "Constitutional choice in ancient Athens: the evolution of the frequency of decision making," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 209-230, September.
    9. Michael Becher, 2019. "Dissolution power, confidence votes, and policymaking in parliamentary democracies," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 31(2), pages 183-208, April.
    10. Jussi Keppo & Lones Smith & Dmitry Davydov, 2006. "Optimal Electoral Timing: Exercise Wisely and You May Live Longer," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1565, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Becher, Michael, 2018. "Dissolution Power, Confidence Votes, and Policymaking in Parliamentary Democracies," TSE Working Papers 18-945, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    12. J. Stephen Ferris & Derek E. H. Olmstead, 2017. "Fixed versus flexible election terms: explaining innovation in the timing of Canada’s election cycle," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 117-141, June.
    13. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2006. "On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 899-925, December.
    14. Lesmono, Dharma & Tonkes, Elliot & Burrage, Kevin, 2009. "Opportunistic timing and manipulation in Australian Federal Elections," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 677-691, January.
    15. Heckelman, Jac C., 2001. "Partisan Business Cycles under Variable Election Dates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 261-275, April.
    16. Fouad Pervez, 2015. "Waiting for election season," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 265-303, June.
    17. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    18. Felix Bierbrauer & Lydia Mechtenberg, 2008. "Winners and Losers of Early Elections: On the Welfare Implications of Political Blockades and Early Elections," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2008_50, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    19. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    20. Becher, Michael, 2018. "Dissolution Power, Confidence Votes, and Policymaking in Parliamentary Democracies," IAST Working Papers 18-80, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    21. Mattias K. Polborn & Gerald Willmann, 2009. "Optimal agenda-setter timing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1527-1546, November.
    22. Timm Betz & Amy Pond, 2020. "Political Ownership," Munich Papers in Political Economy 01, Munich School of Politics and Public Policy and the School of Management at the Technical University of Munich.
    23. J. Stephen Ferris & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2011. "Does the expectation or realization of a federal election precipitate Canadian output growth?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(1), pages 107-132, February.

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