IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/restat/v102y2020i4p705-720.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contractionary Devaluation Risk: Evidence from the Free Silver Movement, 1878-1900

Author

Listed:
  • Colin Weiss

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Abstract

I identify significant effects of devaluation risk on interest rates and output using US silver coinage policy news between 1878 and 1900 as clean shocks to exchange rate expectations. The Free Silver movement heightened fears the United States would abandon the gold standard and depreciate the dollar. Because Congress, rather than a central bank, set silver coinage policy, silver policy news was likely uncorrelated with economic shocks. Corporate bonds exposed to dollar devaluation returned an additional 1 percent relative to safer bonds when silver risk decreased. Additionally, increased silver coinage risk is associated with an economically significant fall in industrial production.

Suggested Citation

  • Colin Weiss, 2020. "Contractionary Devaluation Risk: Evidence from the Free Silver Movement, 1878-1900," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 705-720, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:102:y:2020:i:4:p:705-720
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/rest_a_00841
    Download Restriction: Access to PDF is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2022. "Foreign currency loans and credit risk: Evidence from U.S. banks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2010. "Do Markets Care Who Chairs the Central Bank?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 347-371, March.
    3. Bordo, Michael D. & Cavallo, Alberto F. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2010. "Sudden stops: Determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880-1913," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-241, March.
    4. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    5. Romer, Christina D., 1994. "Remeasuring Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 573-609, September.
    6. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Herman Kamil & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2016. "What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises: Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 756-769, October.
    7. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
    8. Scott L. Fulford & Felipe Schwartzman, 2020. "The Benefits of Commitment to a Currency Peg: Aggregate Lessons from the Regional Effects of the 1896 U.S. Presidential Election," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 600-616, July.
    9. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk under currency boards," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, December.
    10. Bordo,Michael D. & Capie,Forrest, 2006. "Monetary Regimes in Transition," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521030427, November.
    11. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
    12. Weidenmier, Marc & Mitchener, Kris, 2015. "Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Romer, Christina D, 1989. "The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869-1908," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 1-37, February.
    14. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    15. Andrew J. Jalil, 2015. "A New History of Banking Panics in the United States, 1825-1929: Construction and Implications," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 295-330, July.
    16. Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2015. "Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 479-511, June.
    17. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Lee, Byoungchan, 2017. "A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8878h9r2, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    18. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    19. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2009. "Identifying the effects of an exchange rate depreciation on country risk: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1022-1044, October.
    20. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    21. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, June.
    22. Kim, Yun Jung & Tesar, Linda L. & Zhang, Jing, 2015. "The impact of foreign liabilities on small firms: Firm-level evidence from the Korean crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 209-230.
    23. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 757-784, December.
    24. Warren Bailey & Kirida Bhaopichitr, 2004. "How Important Was Silver? Some Evidence on Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Stock Returns in Colonial-Era Asia," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(1), pages 137-174, January.
    25. Joshua K. Hausman & Paul W. Rhode & Johannes F. Wieland, 2019. "Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 427-472, February.
    26. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Colin Weiss, 2020. "Intermediary Asset Pricing during the National Banking Era," International Finance Discussion Papers 1302, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2022. "Foreign currency loans and credit risk: Evidence from U.S. banks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2017. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, And Financial Crises: Evidence From The American Record," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 527-541, January.
    2. Hardy, Bryan, 2023. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks, and real outcomes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Camila Casas & Sergii Meleshchuk & Yannick Timmer, 2020. "The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 1111, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Kramer, Bert S. & Milionis, Petros, 2022. "Democratic constraints and adherence to the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Xiaoxi Liu & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "Exchange rate appreciations and corporate risk taking," BIS Working Papers 710, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," NBER Working Papers 24154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Xiaoxi Liu & Ilhyock Shim, 2021. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 90-121, March.
    8. Sérgio Leão & Rafael Schiozer & Raquel F. Oliveira & Gustavo Araujo, 2022. "Lending Relationships and Currency Hedging," Working Papers Series 565, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Lennard, Jason, 2018. "Did monetary policy matter? Narrative evidence from the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 16-36.
    10. Caballero, Julián, 2021. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: All’s well that ends well?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    13. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.
    14. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    16. Magud, Nicolas E. & Pienknagura, Samuel, 2024. "The return of expansionary austerity: Firms' investment response to fiscal adjustments in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2021. "The real effects of financial uncertainty shocks: A daily identification approach," Working Papers 61, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    18. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Damette, Olivier & Parent, Antoine & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 99-114.
    19. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie, 2019. "From carry trades to trade credit: financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," BIS Working Papers 773, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Altavilla, Carlo & Pariès, Matthieu Darracq & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2019. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:102:y:2020:i:4:p:705-720. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The MIT Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.