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Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk

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  • Mitchener, Kris James
  • Weidenmier, Marc D.

Abstract

We use a standard metric from international finance, the currency risk premium, to assess the credibility of fixed exchange rates during the classical gold standard era. Theory suggests that a completely credible and permanent commitment to join the gold standard would have zero currency risk or no expectation of devaluation. We find that, even five years after a typical emerging-market country joined the gold standard, the currency risk premium averaged at least 220 basis points. Fixed-effects, panel-regression estimates that control for a variety of borrower-specific factors also show large and positive currency risk premia. In contrast to core gold standard countries, such as France and Germany, the persistence of large premia, long after gold standard adoption, suggest that financial markets did not view the pegs in emerging markets as credible and expected that they devaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2015. "Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 479-511, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:75:y:2015:i:02:p:479-511_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kris James Mitchener & Gonçalo Alves Pina, 2022. "Causal Effects of Countercyclical Interest Rates: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 29970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Eric Monnet, 2024. "Interest Rates," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, edition 3, pages 1531-1549, Springer.
    3. Damian Clarke & Manuel Llorca Jaña & Daniel Pailañir, 2023. "The use of quantile methods in economic history," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 115-132, April.
    4. Monnet, Eric & Puy, Damien, 2020. "Do old habits die hard? Central banks and the Bretton Woods gold puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Colin Weiss, 2020. "Contractionary Devaluation Risk: Evidence from the Free Silver Movement, 1878-1900," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 705-720, October.
    6. Kramer, Bert S. & Milionis, Petros, 2022. "Democratic constraints and adherence to the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Bazot, Guillaume & Monnet, Eric & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the gobal financial cycle: Central banks and the sterilization of capital flows in the first era of globalization," IBF Paper Series 03-19, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    9. Mitchener, Kris James & Pina, Gonçalo, 2023. "The effects of countercyclical interest rates: Evidence from the classical gold standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Roldan Alba, 2022. "The Golden Fetters in the Mediterranean Periphery. How Spain and Italy Overcame Business Cycles Between 1870 and 1913?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 170-193, January.
    11. Elmas Yaldiz Hanedar & Avni Önder Hanedar & Ferdi Çelikay, 2017. "Effects of reforms and supervisory organizations: Evidence from the Ottoman Empire and the Istanbul bourse," Working Papers 0112, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    12. Monnet, Eric & bazot, guillaume & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the Global Financial Cycle: Central Banks and the Sterilization of Capital Flows in the First Era of Globalization (1891," CEPR Discussion Papers 13895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez & Gabriel Mathy, 2024. "The World's First Global Safe Asset: British Public Debt, 1718-1913," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2024-01er:dp2024-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    14. Sabaté, Marcela & Fillat, Carmen & Escario, Regina, 2019. "Budget deficits and money creation: Exploring their relation before Bretton Woods," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 38-56.
    15. Jevtic, Aleksandar R., 2020. "Gold rush: The political economy of gold standard adoption in the Kingdom of Yugoslavia," eabh Papers 20-02, The European Association for Banking and Financial History (EABH).
    16. Lennard, Jason, 2018. "Did monetary policy matter? Narrative evidence from the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 16-36.
    17. Tunçer, Ali Coşkun & Weller, Leonardo, 2022. "Democracy, autocracy, and sovereign debt: How polity influenced country risk on the peripheries of the global economy, 1870–1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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