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Non linéarité de la fonction de réaction de la Banque centrale des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest

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  • Honoré Sèwanoudé HOUNGBEDJI

    (Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, Bénin)

Abstract

Cette étude met en évidence la non-linéarité de la fonction de réaction de la Banque cen-trale des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (BCEAO) en utilisant des données annuelles sur la période 1970-2021. A partir de la règle de Taylor modifiée, la fonction de réaction de la BCEAO est testée via un modèle de régression endogène à régime changeant qui permet de séparer l’échantillon en deux régimes de prix faibles et élevés sur la base du taux d’inflation et de l’indice du cours des matières premières (CMP). Les résultats montrent que la fonction de réaction de la BCEAO est asymétrique par rapport à l’inflation et au cycle économique. Mieux la réponse de la politique monétaire de la BCEAO à ces deux variables macroéconomiques n’est pas la même selon un niveau seuil de l’indice du CMP de 56,2. L’étude indique que la Banque centrale, tout en assurant la stabilité des prix, défend de manière efficace la stabilisation du cycle économique surtout quand elle se retrouve dans un régime de prix élevé. Le rôle de la BCEAO ne transparaît que lorsqu’elle se réfère simultanément à l’inflation et à l’indice du CMP dans la détermination des deux régimes de prix. Ces résultats suggèrent que l’adoption d’une équation de seuil constituée du taux d’inflation et de l’indice du CMP dans la modélisation de la fonction de réaction de la BCEAO améliore l’efficacité dans la conduite de sa politique monétaire en régime de prix élevé.

Suggested Citation

  • Honoré Sèwanoudé HOUNGBEDJI, 2022. "Non linéarité de la fonction de réaction de la Banque centrale des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 56, pages 133-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:56:y:2022:p:133-157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Règle de Taylor non linéaire ; Modèle de régression endogène à régime changeant ; Politique moné-taire ; Cours des matières premières;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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