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The Periphery's Terms of Trade in the Nineteenth Century: A Methodological Problem Revisited

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  • Joseph A. Francis

Abstract

There is a major downward bias in the trend of most existing estimates of the periphery's nineteenth-century terms of trade. By using prices from the North Atlantic core as proxies for prices in the peripheral countries themselves, historians ignore the dramatic price convergence that took place during the nineteenth century. Measured correctly, the periphery's nineteenth-century terms-of-trade boom would appear considerably longer, greater, and more widespread than Jeffrey Williamson (2008, 2011) supposes, greatly reinforcing his grand narrative about the relation between globalization and the "great divergence." Many of the details of his narrative, however, must be revised. This is illustrated by the case of India.

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  • Joseph A. Francis, 2015. "The Periphery's Terms of Trade in the Nineteenth Century: A Methodological Problem Revisited," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 52-65, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:vhimxx:v:48:y:2015:i:1:p:52-65
    DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2014.963775
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    2. Francis, Joseph A., 2014. "Resolving the Halperín Paradox: The Terms of Trade and Argentina’s Expansion in the Long Nineteenth Century," MPRA Paper 57915, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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