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Was industrialization an escape from the commodity lottery? Evidence from Italy, 1861-1939

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  • Federico, Giovanni
  • Vasta, Michelangelo

Abstract

The specialization in exporting primary products is frequently deemed harmful for long-run development, because it increases volatility of terms of trade and thus the number and frequency of macroeconomic shocks. One would expect modern economic growth to solve the problem by changing the composition of trade. This paper tests this hypothesis with a new series of Italian terms of trade from 1861 to 1939, a period which spans the first stage of the industrialization of the country. The results do not tally with the hypothesis. The change in composition improved marginally the terms of trade, but it did not help much in terms of volatility.

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  • Federico, Giovanni & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2010. "Was industrialization an escape from the commodity lottery? Evidence from Italy, 1861-1939," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 228-243, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:47:y:2010:i:2:p:228-243
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    2. Wolf, Nikolaus & Federico, Giovanni, 2012. "Italy?s Comparative Advantage: A Long-Run Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 8758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Pistoresi, Barbara & Rinaldi, Alberto, 2012. "Exports, imports and growth," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 241-254.
    4. Gabriele Cappelli & Emanuele Felice & Julio Martínez-Galarraga & Daniel Tirado, 2018. "Still a long way to go: decomposing income inequality across Italy’s regions, 1871 – 2011," Working Papers 0123, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    5. Domini, Giacomo, 2015. "The innovation-trade nexus: Italy in historical perspective (1861-1939)," MERIT Working Papers 2015-055, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. Felice, Emanuele & Carreras, Albert, 2012. "When did modernization begin? Italy's industrial growth reconsidered in light of new value-added series, 1911–1951," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 443-460.
    7. Emanuele Felice & Albert Carreras, 2012. "The roots of success: industrial growth in Italy reconsidered, 1911-1951," UHE Working papers 2012_04, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Departament d'Economia i Història Econòmica, Unitat d'Història Econòmica.

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