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Implications of China's future bride shortage for the geographical distribution and social protection needs of never-married men

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  • Ethan Sharygin
  • Avraham Ebenstein
  • Monica Das Gupta

Abstract

Because sex ratios at birth have risen sharply in China in recent decades, an increasing proportion of men will be unable to find a bride, and will face old age without the support of a wife and children. We project the proportions of never-married men and their geographical distribution in China in the coming decades. Our projections assume that two tendencies in current marriage patterns will persist: that women will continue to migrate to wealthier areas and to prefer men with better prospects. We find that, by 2030, more than 20 per cent of men in China aged 30-39 will never have married, and that the proportion will be especially high among poor men in low-income provinces that are least able to provide social protection programmes. The projected geographic concentration of bachelors could be socially disruptive, and the results suggest a need to expand the coverage and central financing of social protection programmes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ethan Sharygin & Avraham Ebenstein & Monica Das Gupta, 2013. "Implications of China's future bride shortage for the geographical distribution and social protection needs of never-married men," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(1), pages 39-59, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:39-59
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.723893
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lena Edlund & Hongbin Li & Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2013. "Sex Ratios and Crime: Evidence from China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1520-1534, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Li, Wenchao & Song, Changcheng & Xu, Shu & Yi, Junjian, 2017. "Household Portfolio Choice, Reference Dependence, and the Marriage Market," IZA Discussion Papers 10528, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Wanru Xiong, 2023. "Love is Elsewhere: Internal Migration and Marriage Prospects in China," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-29, December.
    4. Qinyou Hu, 2024. "Social status and marriage markets: Evaluating a Hukou policy in China," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 477-509, June.
    5. Yue Qian & Zhenchao Qian, 2014. "The gender divide in urban China: Singlehood and assortative mating by age and education," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(45), pages 1337-1364.
    6. Li, Wenchao & Yi, Junjian, 2015. "The Competitive Earning Incentive for Sons: Evidence from Migration in China," IZA Discussion Papers 9214, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Yan Wei & Li Zhang, 2016. "Understanding Hypergamous Marriages of Chinese Rural Women," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(6), pages 877-898, December.
    8. Li, Wenchao, 2021. "The “miseries” of sex imbalance: Evidence using subjective well-being data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. José Ortega, 2014. "A Characterization of World Union Patterns at the National and Regional Level," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(2), pages 161-188, April.

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