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China's marriage market and upcoming challenges for elderly men

Author

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  • Das Gupta, Monica
  • Ebenstein, Avraham
  • Sharygin, Ethan Jennings

Abstract

Fertility decline has fueled a sharp increase in the proportion of'missing girls'in China, so an increasing share of males will fail to marry, and will face old age without the support normally provided by wives and children. This paper shows that historically, China has had nearly-universal marriage for women and a very competitive market for men. Lower-educated men experience higher rates of bachelorhood while women favor men with better prospects, migrating if needed from poorer to wealthier areas. The authors examine the anticipated effects of this combination of bride shortage and hypergamy, for different regions of China. Their projections indicate that unmarried males will likely be concentrated in poorer provinces with low fiscal ability to provide social protection to their citizens. Such geographic concentration of unmarried males could be socially disruptive, and the paper’s findings suggest a need to expand the coverage of social protection programs financed substantially by the central government.

Suggested Citation

  • Das Gupta, Monica & Ebenstein, Avraham & Sharygin, Ethan Jennings, 2010. "China's marriage market and upcoming challenges for elderly men," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5351, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5351
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Quanbao Jiang & Shuzhuo Li & Marcus Feldman, 2011. "Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(4), pages 619-638, August.
    2. Roberto Bonilla & Francis Kiraly & John Wildman, 2022. "Marriage premium with productivity heterogeneity," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 317-328, January.
    3. Zhiqiang Dong & Yaseen Alhaj‐Yaseen & Yang Jiao & Yuejun Zhong, 2021. "Surplus men and scarce women: The impact of mating competition on the desire for sons in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 339-371, August.
    4. S. Anukriti, 2013. "The Fertility-Sex Ratio Tradeoff: Unintended Consequences of Financial Incentives," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 827, Boston College Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

    Population Policies; Population&Development; Demographics; Gender and Law; Gender and Health;
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