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Modelling Inter-ward Migration in Hereford and Worcester: The Importance of Housing Growth and Tenure

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  • Paul Boyle
  • Robin Flowerdew
  • Jianfa Shen

Abstract

BOYLE P.J., FLOWERDEW R. and SHEN J. (1998) Modelling inter-ward migration in Hereford and Worcester: the importance of housing growth and tenure, Reg. Studies 32 , 113-132. Most migrations are short-distance, local-level moves, but few studies have attempted to model the flows within a single non-metropolitan county. In this paper, we use the 1991 Special Migration Statistics to analyse inter-ward flows in the British county of Hereford and Worcester. New modelling techniques developed in recent years, based on the Poisson distribution, are used in this research which partially overcome the under-dispersion problem resulting from modelling zero and very small flows. Various social, economic and housing variables have been selected to estimate a migration model using a step-wise approach. Analysis at this scale provides the potential for more detailed generalization about migration processes such as suburbanization, counterurbanization, intra-urban mobility, rural depopulation and the relationship between housing and demographic change at the local level. Unlike migration flows over long distances, which are often employment related, these flows are primarily motivated by residential requirements and housing type and growth are identified as key variables in the interpretation of these migration patterns BOYLE P. J., FLOWERDEW R. et SHEN J. (1998) La modelisation des migrations au sein de la circonscription electorale de Hereford et Worcester: l'importance de la jouissance et de la croissance du nombre de logements, Reg. Studies 32, 113-132. La plupart des migrations sont des deplacements locaux a distance faible. Rares sont les etudes qui ont tentede modeliser les flux au sein d'un seul comte non-metropolitain. A partir des 1991 Special Migration Statistics, cet article cherche a aanalyser les flux a l'interieur du comtede Hereford et Worcester en Grande-Bretagne. Des techniques de modelisation nouvelles, fondees sur la distribution de Poisson, sont utilisees, qui surmontent en partie le probleme de la sous-dispersion qui provient de la modelisation du zero et des flux negligeables. A partir d'une facon progressive, diverses variables sociales, economiques et de logement ont etechoisies afin d'estimer un modele de migration. Une telle analyse permet des generalisations plus detaillees du processus de la migration, a savoir le developpement des banlieues, la rurbanisation, la mobiliteau sein des villes, la desertification et le rapport entre le logement et l'evolution de la population sur le plan local. A la difference de la migration a grande distance, qui s'explique souvent par la recherche d'emploi, ces flux s'expliquent dans un premier temps par le logement, et la jouissance et la croissance du nombre de logements sont des variables cle qui aident a comprendre la distribution geographique de la migration. Migration sur le plan local Modelisation de la migration Regression du type Poisson Logement et migration Comtede Hereford et Worcester BOYLE P. J., FLOWERDEW R. und SHEN J. (1998) Ein Modell der Bevolkerungsverschiebung von einem Wahlbezirk zum andern im Gebiet von Hereford und Worcester: die Bedeutung der Zunahme des Wohnungsbestandes und ihrer Besitzverhaltnisse, Reg. Studies 32, 113-132. Die meisten Wanderungen sind Umzuge auf Ortsebene uber kurze Entfernungen hinweg, doch nur wenige Untersuchungen haben versucht, ein Modell der Stromungen innerhalb einer einzigen, nicht gross-stadtischen Grafschaft zu erstellen. Im vorliegenden Aufsatz wird versucht, die speziellen Wanderungsstatstiken des Jahres 1991 zur Analyse von Umzugen von einem Wahlbezirk zum andern in der britischen Grafschaft Hereford und Worcester zu benutzen. Fur diese Arbeit wurde eine neue, in den letzten Jahren auf der Grundlage der Poissonschen Streuung entwickelte Modelltechnik benutzt, welche teilweise die Probleme der geringen Stromung uberwinden, die sich bei Modellen mangelnder und sehr geringer Strome ergeben. Verschiedene soziale, wirtschaftliche und wohnungsbedingte Veranderliche wurden fur ein schrittweises Vorgehen bei der Schatzung eines Wanderungsmodelles ausgewahlt. Analysen dieses Umfangs sorgen fur das Potential weit ins Einzelne gehender Verallgemeinerungen uber Wanderungsvorgange auf Ortsebene wie Vorortbildung, Gegenverstadterung, Umzuge innerhalb der Stadt, Landflucht und Beziehungen zwischen Veranderungen im Wohnungsmarkt und in der Bevolkerung. Anders als Wanderbewegungen uber grosse Entfernungen hinweg, die oft mit Erwerbstatigkeit zusammenhangen, werden diese Stro¨mungen in erster Linie von Wohnbedu¨rfnissen bestimmt, und Wohnungstyp und-zunahme als Hauptvera¨nderliche in der Interpretation der Wanderungsmuster identifiziert.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Boyle & Robin Flowerdew & Jianfa Shen, 1998. "Modelling Inter-ward Migration in Hereford and Worcester: The Importance of Housing Growth and Tenure," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 113-132.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:32:y:1998:i:2:p:113-132
    DOI: 10.1080/00343409850123017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P J Boyle & R Flowerdew, 1993. "Modelling Sparse Interaction Matrices: Interward Migration in Hereford and Worcester, and the Underdispersion Problem," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 25(8), pages 1201-1209, August.
    2. R Flowerdew & P J Boyle, 1995. "Migration Models Incorporating Interdependence of Movers," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 27(9), pages 1493-1502, September.
    3. Hughes, Gordon & McCormick, Barry, 1981. "Do Council Housing Policies Reduce Migration between Regions?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(364), pages 919-937, December.
    4. Gordon Hughes & Barry McCormick, 1991. "Housing Markets, Unemployment and Labour Market Flexibility in the U.K," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 83-114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. I Bracken & J Bates, 1983. "Analysis of Gross Migration Profiles in England and Wales: Some Developments in Classification," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 15(3), pages 343-355, March.
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    2. Honorata Bogusz & Szymon Winnicki & Piotr Wójcik, 2020. "What factors determine unequal suburbanisation? New evidence from Warsaw, Poland," Working Papers 2020-34, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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