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Migration Models Incorporating Interdependence of Movers

Author

Listed:
  • R Flowerdew

    (Department of Geography, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YB, England)

  • P J Boyle

    (School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, England)

Abstract

Models of migration between regions are often based on the assumption that individual moves can be modelled by a Poisson distribution whose parameter is a function of origin and destination characteristics, and generalized cost; this is true of Poisson regression models and spatial interaction models. The Poisson assumption is that each individual acts independently from others making the same move. In fact, migration is usually engaged in by household groups, not independent individuals, making the Poisson assumption invalid. It is possible instead to construct a model in which the probability of a household moving is given by a Poisson model and the number of individuals in a moving household is given by an observed household-size distribution. This generalized Poisson model is explained and fitted to a set of data on local-level migration within the English county of Hereford and Worcester. However, the sparse nature of the data set raises problems in assessing goodness of fit because the deviance value is unusually low. This is tackled here with a simulation methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • R Flowerdew & P J Boyle, 1995. "Migration Models Incorporating Interdependence of Movers," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 27(9), pages 1493-1502, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:27:y:1995:i:9:p:1493-1502
    DOI: 10.1068/a271493
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P J Boyle & R Flowerdew, 1993. "Modelling Sparse Interaction Matrices: Interward Migration in Hereford and Worcester, and the Underdispersion Problem," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 25(8), pages 1201-1209, August.
    2. Robin Flowerdew & Carl Amrhein, 1989. "Poisson Regression Models Of Canadian Census Division Migration Flows," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 89-102, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rephann, Terance & Vencatasawmy, Coomaren, 1999. "Determinants of the Spatial Mobility of Immigrants in Sweden," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa272, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Rephann, Terance J. & Vencatasawmy, Coomaren P, 2000. "Determinants of the Spatial Mobility of Immigrants: Evidence from Sweden," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 30(2), pages 189-213, Fall.
    3. Carola Méndez Araya & Marcelo Lufin Varas, 2013. "¿Dónde están los inmigrantes en Chile?: Un análisis de Patrones Espaciales de Residencia por Municipalidades," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 38, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2013.
    4. Paul Boyle & Robin Flowerdew & Jianfa Shen, 1998. "Modelling Inter-ward Migration in Hereford and Worcester: The Importance of Housing Growth and Tenure," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 113-132.

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