IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/recsxx/v5y2002i1p123-156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

R&D—Productivity Dynamics: Causality, Lags, and ‘Dry Holes’

Author

Listed:
  • Petri Rouvinen

Abstract

We study four issues in R&D-productivity dynamics: does R&D Granger cause productivity, is there a lag between R&D and its productivity effects, does the potency of R&D vary in timing and magnitude, and what is the role of R&D spillovers and aggregate shocks. The results suggest that R&D causes productivity but not vice versa, productivity responds to changes in R&D with a considerable lag, the potency of R&D varies in timing and magnitude, and that the elasticity of productivity with respect to aggregate shocks is high, but negligible with respect to R&D spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Petri Rouvinen, 2002. "R&D—Productivity Dynamics: Causality, Lags, and ‘Dry Holes’," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 123-156, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:5:y:2002:i:1:p:123-156
    DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2002.12040573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/15140326.2002.12040573
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/15140326.2002.12040573?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bronwyn H. Hall & Jacques Mairesse & Benoit Mulkay, 1998. "Does cash flow cause investment and R&D: an exploration using panel data for French, Japanes and United States scientific firms," IFS Working Papers W98/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G., 1995. "Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 165-188, August.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    4. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    5. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Productivity and R&D at the Firm Level," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 100-133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Lyons, Richard K., 1992. "External effects in U.S. procyclical productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 209-225, April.
    7. Zvi Griliches, 1984. "R&D, Patents, and Productivity," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gril84-1.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    9. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    10. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    11. White, Halbert, 1982. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Independent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 483-499, March.
    12. Arellano, Manuel, 1989. "A note on the Anderson-Hsiao estimator for panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 337-341, December.
    13. Zvi Griliches & Jacques Mairesse, 1981. "Productivity and R and D at the Firm Level," NBER Working Papers 0826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1993. "Innovations and Technological Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 4423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1980. "Sectoral Productivity Slowdown," NBER Working Papers 0423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
    17. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Mairesse, Jacques, 1995. "Exploring the relationship between R&D and productivity in French manufacturing firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 263-293, January.
    18. Ricardo J. Caballero & Richard K. Lyons, 1989. "The Role of External Economies in U.S. Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 3033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Good, D. & Nadiri, M.I. & Sickles, R., 1996. "Index Number and Factor Demand Approaches to the Estimarion of Productivity," Working Papers 96-34, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    20. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    21. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Lyons, Richard K., 1990. "Internal versus external economies in European industry," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 805-826, June.
    22. Bronwyn Hall & Jacques Mairesse, 1998. "Does Cash Flow cause Investment and R and D: An Exploration Using Panel Data for French, Japanese, and United States Scientific Firms," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W08, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    23. Park, Walter G, 1995. "International R&D Spillovers and OECD Economic Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 571-591, October.
    24. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    25. repec:bla:scandj:v:94:y:1992:i:0:p:s29-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Nadiri, M Ishaq, 1980. "Sectoral Productivity Slowdown," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 349-352, May.
    27. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "The Search for R&D Spillovers," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 251-268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    29. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rouvinen, Petri, 1999. "Issues in R&D-Productivity. Causality, Lags, and 'Dry Holes'," Discussion Papers 694, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Ejike Udeogu (a) , Uzochukwu Amakom (b) and Shampa Roy-Mukherjee (a), 2021. "Empirical Analysis of an Augmented Schumpeterian Endogenous Growth Model," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 46(1), pages 53-84, March.
    3. Martin Andersson & Hans Lööf, 2009. "Learning‐by‐Exporting Revisited: The Role of Intensity and Persistence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 893-916, December.
    4. Ornaghi, Carmine, 2006. "Spillovers in product and process innovation: Evidence from manufacturing firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 349-380, March.
    5. Al-Jahwari, Salim Ahmed Said, 2021. "Does the Twin-Deficits doctrine apply to the Gulf Cooperation Council? A dynamic panel VAR-X model approach," MPRA Paper 111232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Mairesse, Jacques & Mohnen, Pierre, 2010. "Measuring the Returns to R&D," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1033-1082, Elsevier.
    7. Markus Eberhardt & Christian Helmers & Hubert Strauss, 2013. "Do Spillovers Matter When Estimating Private Returns to R&D?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 436-448, May.
    8. Fotis, Panagiotis & Karkalakos, Sotiris & Asteriou, Dimitrios, 2017. "The relationship between energy demand and real GDP growth rate: The role of price asymmetries and spatial externalities within 34 countries across the globe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 69-84.
    9. Hans Lööf & Martin Andersson, 2010. "Imports, Productivity and Origin Markets: The Role of Knowledge‐intensive Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 458-481, March.
    10. Yoshitsugu Kitazawa, 2003. "Dynamic Panel Data Model and Moment Generating Function," Discussion Papers 13, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    11. Maurice J.G. Bun & Sarafidis, V., 2013. "Dynamic Panel Data Models," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 13-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.
    12. G Cameron, 1996. "Innovation and Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0277, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Binder, Michael & Hsiao, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2005. "Estimation And Inference In Short Panel Vector Autoregressions With Unit Roots And Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 795-837, August.
    14. Martin Andersson & Hans Lööf, 2011. "Agglomeration and productivity: evidence from firm-level data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 46(3), pages 601-620, June.
    15. Angelica Gonzalez, 2007. "Angelica Gonzalez," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 168, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    16. Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose & Vassilis Tselios, 2009. "Education And Income Inequality In The Regions Of The European Union," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 411-437, August.
    17. Hailiang Chen & Prabuddha De & Yu Jeffrey Hu, 2015. "IT-Enabled Broadcasting in Social Media: An Empirical Study of Artists’ Activities and Music Sales," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 26(3), pages 513-531, September.
    18. Biørn, Erik, 2012. "The Measurement Error Problem in Dynamic Panel Data Analysis: Modeling and GMM Estimation," Memorandum 02/2012, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    19. Mayer, Alexander, 2022. "On the local power of some tests of strict exogeneity in linear fixed effects models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 49-74.
    20. Jan F. Kiviet, 2005. "Judging Contending Estimators by Simulation: Tournaments in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-112/4, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:5:y:2002:i:1:p:123-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/recs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.