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Aggregate consumption spending, the stock market and asymmetric error correction

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  • Lonnie Stevans

Abstract

In this study, we show how changes in wealth resulting from unanticipated changes in the value of equity holdings begin a process whereby households alter consumption growth in order to close the gap between actual and target spending. Because of changing uncertainty or equity price volatility over the stock market cycle, we found the time path of this adjustment to exhibit near-random walk behaviour during stock market downturns. Conversely, during 'boom' periods, e.g. when the value of equities held by households was greater than the threshold, the growth in consumer spending was quick to eliminate the disparity between actual and target spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Lonnie Stevans, 2004. "Aggregate consumption spending, the stock market and asymmetric error correction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 191-198.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:4:y:2004:i:2:p:191-198
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680400000023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nathan Barczi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2001. "A primer on the economics and time series econometrics of wealth effects: a comment," Staff Reports 131, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Jul), pages 29-51.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, David Y. & Li, Tongzhe, 2014. "Financial crises, Asian stock indices, and current accounts: An Asian-U.S. comparative study," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 66-78.
    2. E. M uez & A.R. Mart󹑺-Ca & I. P鲥z-Soba, 2014. "From real estate to consumption: the role of credit markets in the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2178-2189, June.
    3. Andriy Avramenko & Michael R. Donihue, 2006. "Decomposing consumer wealth effects: evidence on the role of real estate assets following the wealth cycle of 1990-2002," Working Papers 06-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Robert-Paul Berben & Kerstin Bernoth & Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2007. "Households' response to wealth changes: do gains or losses make a difference?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 1, volume 25, pages 145-160, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Resurrecting the Wealth Effect on Consumption: Further Analysis and Extension," Working papers 2005-57, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    6. Holmes, Mark J. & Shen, Xin, 2013. "A note on the average propensity to consume, wealth and threshold adjustment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 309-313.
    7. Esra Alp Coskun & Nicholas Apergis & Yener Coskun, 2022. "Threshold effects of housing affordability and financial development on the house price‐consumption nexus," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1785-1806, April.
    8. Konstantina Manou & Panagiotis Palaios & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2019. "Housing wealth, household debt and financial assets: are there implications for consumption?," Working Papers 263, Bank of Greece.
    9. Robert-Paul Berben & Kerstin Bernoth & Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2007. "Households' response to wealth changes: do gains or losses make a difference?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 1, volume 25, pages 145-160, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Mark J. HOLMES & Xin SHEN, 2015. "On Wealth Volatility, Asymmetries And The Average Propensity To Consume In The United States," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 69-78.
    11. Márquez, Elena & Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2013. "Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: Empirical evidence for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 357-366.
    12. Xiaorong Zhou & Meng-Shiuh Chang & Karen Gibler, 2016. "The asymmetric wealth effects of housing market and stock market on consumption in China," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 196-216, April.
    13. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Consumption asymmetry and the stock market: New evidence through a threshold adjustment model," Working papers 2005-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    14. James T. Strong & Gokce Soydemir & Panagiotis Petratos, 2019. "Asymmetric Impact of Advertising revenues on Consumer Behavior: A Bivariate Approach," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(2), pages 1-14.
    15. Konstantina Manou & Panagiotis Palaios & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2021. "Housing wealth, household debt, and financial assets: Are there implications for consumption?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1253-1279, September.
    16. Till van Treeck, 2008. "Asymmetric income and wealth effects in a non-linear error correction model of US consumer spending," IMK Working Paper 06-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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