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La consommation privée en Belgique

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Eugène

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Philippe Jeanfils

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Benoît Robert

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Abstract

This paper analyses the path of private consumption and its main macroeconomic determinants. These are related to the life-cycle approach which helps explaining consumption smoothing. In that respect, it is important to go beyond the simple correlation between current disposable income and consumption to incorporate future income expectations and wealth. As for this latter, the paper also proceeds to a careful description of the mechanisms at work in the wealth effect and of the structure of Belgian households' wealth. Empirically, it is shown that in Belgium human wealth plays a far larger role than financial wealth while the interest rate reflects intertemporal substitution in explaining long-term desired consumption. Variations in these long-term determinants impact only gradually on consumption dynamics, highlighting the fact that changes need to be sustained to have sizeable effects. Finally, in addition to the interest rate, human and financial wealth, the significance of liquidity-constrained consumers and of a confidence indicator are tested. However it does not seem that they exhibit a significant contribution to consumption growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Eugène & Philippe Jeanfils & Benoît Robert, 2003. "La consommation privée en Belgique," Working Paper Document 39, National Bank of Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:docwpp:200306-39
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    File URL: https://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/publications/wp/wp39en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. A. Bruggeman & M. Hradisky & V. Périlleux, 2005. "Share prices, house prices and monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 65-78, September.
    2. V. Périlleux & Q. Wibaut, 2004. "The transmission of monetary policy impulses in Belgium," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 37-45, June.
    3. P. Reusens & Ch. Warisse, 2018. "House prices and economic growth in Belgium," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 81-106, december.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    branch survey; car industry; subcontracting; indirect effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R34 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Input Demand Analysis

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