IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v93y2003i2p376-382.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Consumption Risk and Expected Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan A. Parker

Abstract

Following the textbook CCAPM, the consumption risk of an asset is typically measured as the contemporaneous covariance of the marginal utility of consumption and the return on that asset. When measured this way, consumption risk is too small to explain the observed equity premium, is negatively related to expected excess returns over time, and fails to explain the cross-sectional differences in average returns of the Fama and French (25) portfolios. This paper evaluates the central insight of the CCAPM -- that consumption risk determines returns -- but take the model less literally by allowing the possibility that households do not instantaneously and completely adjust consumption to the news revealed about wealth in a period. The long-term consumption risk of the aggregate market is signficantly larger than the contemporaneous risk and is positively related to expected excess returns over time. The long-term consumption risk of different portfolios largely explains the observed differences in average returns.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan A. Parker, 2003. "Consumption Risk and Expected Stock Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 376-382, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:2:p:376-382
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/000282803321947380
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/000282803321947380
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    2. Owen A. Lamont & Richard H. Thaler, 2003. "Can the Market Add and Subtract? Mispricing in Tech Stock Carve-outs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 227-268, April.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    4. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1988. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice Under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(1), pages 51-78.
    5. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    6. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    7. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    8. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Jonathan A. Parker & Motohiro Yogo, 2001. "Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 8417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Jul), pages 29-51.
    10. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    12. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    13. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2002. "The 6D Bias and the Equity-Premium Puzzle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 257-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
    15. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
    16. Lynch, Anthony W, 1996. "Decision Frequency and Synchronization across Agents: Implications for Aggregate Consumption and Equity Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1479-1497, September.
    17. Shiller, Robert J., 1982. "Consumption, asset markets and macroeconomic fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 203-238, January.
    18. Mankiw, N Gregory & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1986. "Risk and Return: Consumption Beta versus Market Beta," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 452-459, August.
    19. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2002. "Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates with Endogenously Segmented Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-112, February.
    20. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    21. David A. Marshall & Nayan G. Parekh, 1999. "Can Costs of Consumption Adjustment Explain Asset Pricing Puzzles?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 623-654, April.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn.
    24. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1995. "Near-Rationality, Heterogeneity, and Aggregate Consumption," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 29-48, February.
    25. Jonathan A. Parker, 2001. "The Consumption Risk of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 279-348.
    26. Ferson, Wayne E. & Foerster, Stephen R., 1994. "Finite sample properties of the generalized method of moments in tests of conditional asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 29-55, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Anderson, 2021. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing When Consumers Make Mistakes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-015, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Yulei Luo & Eric R. Young, 2016. "Long‐Run Consumption Risk and Asset Allocation under Recursive Utility and Rational Inattention," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 325-362, March.
    3. Ferreira García, María Eva & Martínez, María Isabel & Navarro, Eliseo & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo, 2005. "Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    4. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Jonathan A. Parker & Motohiro Yogo, 2001. "Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 8417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sunil S. Poshakwale & Pankaj Chandorkar, 2019. "The Impact of Aggregate and Disaggregate Consumption Shocks on the Equity Risk Premium in the United Kingdom," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 489-524, November.
    6. Lee, Kiryoung & Jeon, Yoontae & Nam, Eun-Young, 2021. "Chinese Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Cross-Section of U.S. Asset Returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1063-1077.
    7. Eva Ferreira & M. Isabel Martínez Serna & Eliseo Navarro & Gonzalo Rubio, 2008. "Economic Sentiment and Yield Spreads in Europe," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(2), pages 206-221, March.
    8. Jesper Rangvid & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2009. "Global Asset Pricing: Is There a Role for Long-run Consumption Risk?," CREATES Research Papers 2009-57, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Yulei Luo, 2010. "Rational Inattention, Long-run Consumption Risk, and Portfolio Choice," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(4), pages 843-860, October.
    10. Wonnho Choi, 2018. "Consumption-based capital asset pricing models: issues and controversies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 181-205, January.
    11. Luo, Yulei & Young, Eric, 2013. "Rational Inattention in Macroeconomics: A Survey," MPRA Paper 54267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Roussanov, Nikolai, 2014. "Composition of wealth, conditioning information, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 352-380.
    13. Bretscher, Lorenzo & Malkhozov, Aytek & Tamoni, Andrea, 2021. "Expectations and aggregate risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 91-108.
    14. Lorenzo Bretscher & Andrea Tamoni & Aytek Malkhozov, 2019. "News Shocks and Asset Prices," 2019 Meeting Papers 100, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Yulei Luo, 2006. "Rational Inattention, Portfolio Choice, and the Equity Premium," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 56, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Pakos, Michal, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Durable Goods and Nonhomothetic Preferences," MPRA Paper 26167, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Samih Azar, 2011. "Retesting the CCAPM Euler equations," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(4), pages 324-346, September.
    18. Yulei Luo, 2005. "Consumption Dynamics, Asset Pricing, and Welfare Effects under Information Processing Constraints," 2005 Meeting Papers 345, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 185-222, February.
    2. repec:pri:wwseco:dp229 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:pri:wwseco:dp223 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    5. Ravi Jagannathan & Yong Wang, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cost of Equity Capital," NBER Working Papers 11026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
    7. Jonathan A. Parker, 2001. "The Consumption Risk of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 279-348.
    8. George M. Constantinides, 2006. "Market Organization And The Prices Of Financial Assets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 1-23, September.
    9. Kris Jacobs & Kevin Q. Wang, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-11, CIRANO.
    10. Wayne E. Ferson & Ravi Jagannathan, 1996. "Econometric evaluation of asset pricing models," Staff Report 206, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. George M. Constantinides, 2002. "Rational Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1567-1591, August.
    12. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    13. Motohiro Yogo, 2006. "A Consumption‐Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 539-580, April.
    14. Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "Building proxies that capture time-variation in expected returns using a VAR approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 147-163.
    15. Pakos, Michal, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Durable Goods and Nonhomothetic Preferences," MPRA Paper 26167, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Fabio Araujo & Joao Victor Issler, 2005. "Estimating the Stochastic Discount Factor without a Utility Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 202, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani & Hitoshi Takehara & Yong Wang, 2012. "Calendar Cycles, Infrequent Decisions, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 507-522, March.
    18. Julliard, Christian, 2007. "Labor income risk and asset returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4811, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    20. Sydney Ludvigson, 2008. "The Research Agenda: Sydney Ludvigson on Empirical Evaluation of Economic Theories of Risk Premia," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), April.
    21. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    22. Anisha Ghosh & Christian Julliard & Alex P. Taylor, 2017. "What Is the Consumption-CAPM Missing? An Information-Theoretic Framework for the Analysis of Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 442-504.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:2:p:376-382. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.