IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/rdevec/v12y2008i3p655-667.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The New Member States and the Process towards EMU

Author

Listed:
  • José García‐Solanes
  • Ramón María‐Dolores

Abstract

The authors apply two complementary empirical criteria to eight new member states (NMSs) of the European Union to assess how ready they are to adopt the euro. As a first step, they recover demand and supply shocks and calculate the social losses implied by the two relevant exchange rate regimes: flexible rates and currency board. As a second step, the authors calculate the real exchange rates variability that these countries are currently experiencing and compare it to that of three Mediterranean countries during a similar period before they joined the EMU. The combination of the results of both tests shows that Estonia and Slovenia are the only countries that seem ready to adopt the euro within the shortest period of time foreseen by the Maastricht criteria; that is, after the two mandatory years in the ERM2. The rest of the countries will probably still need some exchange rate flexibility to absorb external shocks in the coming years.

Suggested Citation

  • José García‐Solanes & Ramón María‐Dolores, 2008. "The New Member States and the Process towards EMU," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 655-667, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:12:y:2008:i:3:p:655-667
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00478.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00478.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00478.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2004. "Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Comovements in the New and Old Members," MNB Working Papers 2004/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Roland Vaubel, 1976. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European community: The empirical evidence and its implications for European currency unification," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 112(3), pages 429-470, September.
    3. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
    4. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
    5. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
    6. Tamim Bayoumi, 1992. "The Effect of the ERM on Participating Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 330-356, June.
    7. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    8. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    9. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 76-94.
    10. Traistaru, Iulia, 2004. "Transmission channels of business cycles synchronization in an enlarged EMU," ZEI Working Papers B 18-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    11. Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    12. Vaubel, Roland, 1978. "Real exchange-rate changes in the European community : A new approach to the determination of optimum currency areas," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 319-339, May.
    13. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ian Babetskii, 2004. "EU Enlargement and Endogeneity of some OCA Criteria: Evidence from the CEECs," Working Papers 2004/02, Czech National Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramon Maria-Dolores & Jose Garcia-Solanes, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes for the New Member States of the European Union," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 306, Econometric Society.
    2. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    3. Igor Velickovski, 2013. "Assessing independent monetary policy in small, open and euroized countries: evidence from Western Balkan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 137-156, August.
    4. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez-López & José Torres, 2011. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 739-766, September.
    5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    6. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Marcelo Sanchez, 2008. "The link between interest rates and exchange rates: do contractionary depreciations make a difference?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 43-61.
    8. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gammadigbé, Vigninou, 2013. "Endogénéité des critères d'une zone monétaire optimale: un réexamen [Endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria: a re-examination]," MPRA Paper 46727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alberto Ortiz & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "Estimating Sarb'S Policy Reaction Rule," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 659-680, December.
    11. Petr Rozmahel, 2011. "Measuring the business cycles similarity and convergence trends in the Central and Eastern European countries towards the Eurozone with respect to some unclear methodological aspects," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 59(2), pages 237-250.
    12. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2009. "Determinants of West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)countries global export trade: do foreign reserves and independent exchange rates matter?," MPRA Paper 12929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tanja Broz, 2010. "Introduction of the euro in CEE countries - is it economically justifiable? The Croatian case," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 427-447.
    14. Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Pizzuto, Pietro, 2022. "Moving closer? Comparing regional adjustments to shocks in EMU and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2006. "How does information affect the comovement between interest rates and exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 608, European Central Bank.
    16. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    17. Weimann, Marco, 2002. "OCA theory and EMU eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/02, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    18. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
    19. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
    20. Andres, Javier & Domenech, Rafael & Fatas, Antonio, 2008. "The stabilizing role of government size," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-593, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:12:y:2008:i:3:p:655-667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.