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Is the Millennium Development Goal on Poverty Still Achievable? The Role of Institutions, Finance and Openness

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  • Katsushi Imai
  • Raghav Gaiha
  • Ganesh Thapa

Abstract

Drawing upon new World Bank poverty data, the analysis examines the feasibility of attaining the Millennium Development Goal of halving extreme poverty (MDG1) when the interrelationships between finance, institutions, trade liberalization, growth and poverty are taken into account. The authors' econometric results suggest a slowing down of poverty reduction in the more recent years since 2000. They also confirm: the role of better institutions in income growth, poverty reduction, trade openness and financial development; the role of financial development in economic growth; and the positive effect of capital liberalization on financial development. Simulations for different regions show that MDG1 is attainable in most regions if the historical growth rate is maintained over 2006-15. However, improvements in institutional quality are crucial for halving extreme poverty in sub-Saharan Africa.

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  • Katsushi Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Ganesh Thapa, 2010. "Is the Millennium Development Goal on Poverty Still Achievable? The Role of Institutions, Finance and Openness," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 309-337.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oxdevs:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:309-337
    DOI: 10.1080/13600818.2010.505685
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katsushi Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Ganesh Thapa, 2008. "Finance, growth, inequality and hunger in Asia: Evidence from country panel data in 1960-2006," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0813, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Pranab Bardhan, 2004. "Scarcity, Conflicts, and Cooperation: Essays in the Political and Institutional Economics of Development," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262524295, December.
    3. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2010. "The Developing World is Poorer than We Thought, But No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1577-1625.
    4. Rasmus Heltberg, 2002. "The Poverty Elasticity of Growth," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-21, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    1. Katsushi S. Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Ganesh Thapa & Samuel Kobina Annim, 2013. "Financial Crisis In Asia: Its Genesis, Severity And Impact On Poverty And Hunger," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 1105-1116, November.
    2. Raghav Gaiha & Katsushi S. Imai & Ganesh Thapa, 2011. "Role of Agriculture in Achieving MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific Region," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1104, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Tchapo Gbandi & Mawuli K. Couchoro & Mawulolo J. Agossou, 2021. "From the top to the bottom: The global environment and microfinance institution (MFI) performance in the West African Economic and Monetary Union countries," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1087-1111, October.
    4. Imai, Katsushi S. & Gaiha, Raghav & Ali, Abdilahi & Kaicker, Nidhi, 2014. "Remittances, growth and poverty: New evidence from Asian countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 524-538.
    5. Ugur, Mehmet & Dasgupta, Nandini, 2011. "Corruption and economic growth: A meta-analysis of the evidence on low-income countries and beyond," MPRA Paper 31226, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 May 2011.
    6. Asadullah, M. Niaz & Savoia, Antonio, 2018. "Poverty reduction during 1990–2013: Did millennium development goals adoption and state capacity matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 70-82.
    7. Katsushi S. Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Constanza Di NUCCI, 2014. "Agricultural Employment, Wages and Poverty in Developing Countries," Discussion Paper Series DP2014-32, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    8. Imai, Katsushi S. & Gaiha, Raghav & Thapa, Ganesh & Annim, Samuel Kobina, 2012. "Microfinance and Poverty—A Macro Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1675-1689.
    9. Raghav Gaiha & Samuel Annim, 2010. "Agriculture, GDP and Prospects of MDG 1 in Lao PDR," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1012, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Katsushi S. Imai & Raghav Gaiha, 2014. "Dynamic and Long-term Linkages among Growth, Inequality and Poverty in Developing Countries," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1410, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Xiaohua Wang & Meilan Chen & Xi He & Fangfang Zhang, 2018. "Credit Constraint, Credit Adjustment, and Sustainable Growth of Farmers’ Income," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, November.
    12. Annim, Samuel Kobina & Mariwah, Simon & Sebu, Joshua, 2012. "Spatial inequality and household poverty in Ghana," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 487-505.
    13. Katsushi S. Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Ganesh Thapa & Samuel Kobina Annim & Aditi Gupta, 2012. "Financial Performance of Microfinance Institutions-A Macroeconomic and Institutional Perspective," Discussion Paper Series DP2012-04, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    14. Imai, K.S. & Gaiha, R. & Garbero, A., 2018. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 22 - Poverty reduction during the rural-urban transformation: rural development is still more important than urbanization," IFAD Research Series 280071, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    15. Imai, Katsushi S. & Gaiha, Raghav & Garbero, Alessandra, 2017. "Poverty reduction during the rural–urban transformation: Rural development is still more important than urbanisation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 963-982.
    16. Boubacar Balde & Hajime Kobayashi & Akira Ishida & Makoto Nohmi & Mohamed Esham & Ichizen Matsumura & Emmanuel Tolno, 2014. "Effects of Rural Livelihood Activities on Income Inequality and Poverty Reduction in the Guinean Coastal Area," Journal of Agricultural Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 6(6), pages 113-113, May.
    17. Taha Zaghdoudi & Abdelaziz Hakimi, 2017. "Does external debt- poverty relationship confirm the debtoverhang hypothesis for developing counties?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 653-665.

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