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Mobility, risk tolerance and competence to manage risks

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  • Allan M. Williams
  • Vladimír Baláž

Abstract

Migration is a risky behaviour because of the uncertainty about future wages, living conditions, changing relationships with family and friends and cultural adjustment. While there has been some research on risk and uncertainty in migration, this has mostly been approached as a form of 'rational' decision-making: such approaches explain why some groups of individuals are more likely than others to migrate, but are limited in explaining individual variations in behaviour within these groups. Individual migrants vs. non-migrants are self-selected in terms of tolerance of risk and uncertainty but, with very few exceptions, there has been no research on migration within the framework of risk tolerance/aversion and competence to manage risk. Moreover, existing research is based on, and constrained by the limitations of, incumbent data-sets. Drawing on a specially commissioned large-scale survey of the UK population, this paper uses principal component analysis and logistic regression to analyse the extent to which risk and risk-related measures can be used to predict four different types of mobility profiles. There are significant associations between these individual mobility characteristics and general risk/uncertainty tolerance, and competence-based tolerance. These are strongest in terms of the two most polarised mobility types: the least mobile, the Stayers, and the most mobile, the Roamers. Recognising that previous migration is exogenous, a further analysis of migration intentions, with previous migration included as an independent variable, finds the propensity for future migration is, in fact, negatively associated with previous migration, probably due to the importance of 'pure risk' as opposed to acquired competence via migration experience, and to life cycle considerations.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan M. Williams & Vladimír Baláž, 2014. "Mobility, risk tolerance and competence to manage risks," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 1061-1088, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:17:y:2014:i:8:p:1061-1088
    DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2013.841729
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joop Hartog & Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell & Nicole Jonker, 2000. "On a Simple Survey Measure of Individual Risk Aversion," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-074/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2005. "Individual Risk Attitudes: New Evidence from a Large, Representative, Experimentally-Validated Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 511, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Géraldine Bocqueho & Marc Deschamps & Jenny Helstroffer & Julien Jacob & Majlinda Joxhe & Ofce Observatoire Français Des Conjonctures Économiques, 2018. "The risk and refugee migration," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03607866, HAL.
    2. Eide, Dorthe & Fuglsang, Lars & Sundbo, Jon, 2017. "Management challenges with the maintenance of tourism experience concept innovations: Toward a new research agenda," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 452-463.
    3. Klöble, Katrin, 2021. "A behavioural perspective on the drivers of migration: Studying economic and social preferences using the Gallup World Poll," IDOS Discussion Papers 4/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    4. Akgüç, Mehtap & Liu, Xingfei & Tani, Massimiliano & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2016. "Risk attitudes and migration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 166-176.
    5. Goldbach, Carina & Schlüter, Achim, 2018. "Risk aversion, time preferences, and out-migration. Experimental evidence from Ghana and Indonesia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 132-148.
    6. Roberto Roca Paz & Silke Uebelmesser, 2021. "Risk attitudes and migration decisions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 649-684, June.
    7. van der Pol, Marjon & Scott, Anthony & Irvine, Alastair, 2019. "The migration of UK trained GPs to Australia: Does risk attitude matter?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(11), pages 1093-1099.
    8. Williams, Allan M. & Chen, Jason Li & Li, Gang & Baláž, Vladimír, 2022. "Risk, uncertainty and ambiguity amid Covid-19: A multi-national analysis of international travel intentions," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Bocquého, Géraldine & Deschamps, Marc & Helstroffer, Jenny & Jacob, Julien & Joxhe, Majlinda, 2023. "Modelling refugee migration under cognitive biases: Experimental evidence and policy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

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