IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jpropr/v32y2015i4p301-323.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-run equilibrium for the Greater Paris office market and short-run adjustments

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Bruneau
  • Souad Cherfouh

Abstract

While there is an abundant literature on office market modelling, only few studies focus on the Greater Paris case, which stands as the largest office market in Europe. This article aims at contributing to the understanding of the Parisian rental office market underlying mechanisms. We use cointegration techniques including Gregory-Hansen structural break approach to model the market over the period 1990-2013. We employ a two-stage error correction framework to identify the long-run equilibrium rent as well as the short-run adjustments in rent, vacancy rate and stock. The findings show that once allowances are made for a regime shift in the long-run rent relationship, the specified model explains relatively well the Parisian market. The long-run results confirm the role of employment and total stock as long-run determinants of rental values. Yet, in the short-run, due to the inertia arising from the intrinsic features of the office market, lagged dependent variables appear to be drifting rents away from their equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Bruneau & Souad Cherfouh, 2015. "Long-run equilibrium for the Greater Paris office market and short-run adjustments," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 301-323, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:32:y:2015:i:4:p:301-323
    DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2015.1089310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09599916.2015.1089310
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09599916.2015.1089310?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qiulin Ke & Michael White, 2009. "An econometric analysis of Shanghai office rents," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 120-139, March.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    3. Fotis Mouzakis & David Richards, 2007. "Panel Data Modelling of Prime Office Rents: A Study of 12 Major European Markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 31-53, February.
    4. Kieran Farrelly & Ben Sanderson, 2005. "Modelling Regime Shifts in the City of London Office Rental Cycle," ERES eres2005_170, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Catherine Bruneau & Ch. Duval-Kieffer & J. P. Nicolai, 2000. "Managing funds in the US market: how to distinguish between transitory distortions and structural changes in the stock prices?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 146-162.
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    7. Peter Scott & Guy Judge, 2000. "Cycles and steps in British commercial property values," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(10), pages 1287-1297.
    8. Ingrid Nappi‐Choulet & Isabelle Maleyre & Tristan‐Pierre Maury, 2007. "A Hedonic Model of Office Prices in Paris and its Immediate Suburbs," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 241-263, September.
    9. Neil Dunse & Colin Jones, 2002. "The existence of office submarkets in cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 159-182, January.
    10. Kim Liow & Haishan Yang, 2005. "Long-Term Co-Memories and Short-Run Adjustment: Securitized Real Estate and Stock Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 283-300, November.
    11. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    12. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    13. Patric Hendershott & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2008. "Asymmetric Space Market Adjustment in the London Office Market," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2008-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    14. Patric Hendershott & Maarten Jennen & Bryan MacGregor, 2013. "Modeling Space Market Dynamics: An Illustration Using Panel Data for US Retail," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 659-687, November.
    15. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    16. Anthony J. De Francesco, 2008. "Time‐Series Characteristics and Long‐Run Equilibrium for Major Australian Office Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 371-402, June.
    17. John McCartney, 2012. "Short and long-run rent adjustment in the Dublin office market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 201-226, April.
    18. Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Rental Adjustment and Valuation in Overbuilt Markets: Evidence from the Sydney Office Market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 51-67, January.
    19. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    21. Kieran Farrelly & Ben Sanderson, 2005. "Modelling Regime Shifts in the City of London Office Rental Cycle," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 325-344, December.
    22. Patric Hendershott & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustment in the City of London Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 80-101, July.
    23. Wheaton William C. & Torto Raymond G., 1994. "Office Rent Indices and Their Behavior over Time," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 121-139, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nowak Krzysztof, 2020. "Hidden Vacancy Rate as a Part of Office Market Dynamics in Selected Polish Cities," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(1), pages 1-12, March.
    2. Eda Ustaoglu & Filipe Batista e Silva & Carlo Lavalle, 2020. "Quantifying and modelling industrial and commercial land-use demand in France," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 519-549, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chien-Chung Nieh & Hwey-Yun Yau & Ken Hung & Hong-Kou Ou & Shine Hung, 2013. "Cointegration and causal relationships among steel prices of Mainland China, Taiwan, and USA in the presence of multiple structural changes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 545-561, April.
    2. Phengpis, Chanwit, 2006. "Market efficiency and cointegration of spot exchange rates during periods of economic turmoil: Another look at European and Asian currency crises," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 323-342.
    3. Abdurohman & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2017. "The Behavior Of Fiscal Policy In Indonesia In Response To Economic Cycles," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 377-401, June.
    4. Andrade, Philippe & Bruneau, Catherine & Gregoir, Stephane, 2005. "Testing for the cointegration rank when some cointegrating directions are changing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 269-310, February.
    5. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Luis F. Martins & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2022. "Tests for segmented cointegration: an application to US governments budgets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 567-600, August.
    7. Vo, D.H. & Nguyen, H.M. & Vo, A.T. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    8. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    9. Sandy Suardi, 2010. "Nonstationarity, cointegration and structural breaks in the Australian term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2865-2879.
    10. Camgöz, Mevlüt & Topal, Mehmet Hanefi, 2022. "Identifying the asymmetric price dynamics of Islamic equities: Implications for international investors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Senay ACIKGOZ & Anil AKCAGLAYAN, 2014. "Turkiye’de Cari Islemler Aciginin Surdurulebilirligi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(1), pages 83-97.
    12. Zouheir Ahmed Mighri & Majid Ibrahim Alsaggaf, 2019. "Asymmetric Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Adjustment between Oil Prices and Financial Stress," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 87-105.
    13. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    14. Voronkova, Svitlana, 2004. "Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 633-647.
    15. Wu, Jyh-lin, 1998. "Are budget deficits "too large"?: The evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 519-528.
    16. Gupta, Rakesh & Guidi, Francesco, 2012. "Cointegration relationship and time varying co-movements among Indian and Asian developed stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 10-22.
    17. Vo, Duc Hong & Vo, Anh The & Ho, Chi Minh & Nguyen, Ha Minh, 2020. "The role of renewable energy, alternative and nuclear energy in mitigating carbon emissions in the CPTPP countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 278-292.
    18. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. P. Srinivasan & Inder Siddanth Ravindra, 2015. "Causality among Energy Consumption, CO2 Emission, Economic Growth and Trade," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 50(3), pages 168-189, August.
    20. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:32:y:2015:i:4:p:301-323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJPR20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.