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Cycles and steps in British commercial property values

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  • Peter Scott
  • Guy Judge

Abstract

This paper examines cyclical behaviour in commercial property values over the period 1956 to 1996, using a structural times series (unobserved components) approach. The influence of the transition to short rent reviews during the late 1960s and the short and long-term impacts of the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are also incorporated into the analysis, via dummy variables. It is found that once these variables are taken into account a fairly regular cyclical pattern can be discerned, with a period of about 7.8 years. Furthermore, the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are shown to have had a major long-term impact on property value growth (presumably via their influence on investors' expectations).

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Scott & Guy Judge, 2000. "Cycles and steps in British commercial property values," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(10), pages 1287-1297.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:10:p:1287-1297
    DOI: 10.1080/000368400404443
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mervyn K. Lewis,, 1996. "Banks and the Property Cycle," Discussion Papers 96/15, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Dixon & Noriko Otsuka & Hirokazu Abe, 2011. "Critical Success Factors in Urban Brownfield Regeneration: An Analysis of ‘Hardcore’ Sites in Manchester and Osaka during the Economic Recession (2009–10)," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 43(4), pages 961-980, April.
    2. Mark Hon & Soo-Keong Yong, 2004. "The price of owning a car: an analysis of auction quota premium in Singapore," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 739-751.
    3. Christian Rehring, 2012. "Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 65-95, March.
    4. Jos魍ar𨁍ontero-Lorenzo & Beatriz Larraz-Iribas, 2012. "Space-time approach to commercial property prices valuation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(28), pages 3705-3715, October.
    5. Yun-Ling Wu & Cheng-Huang Tung & Chun-Chang Lee, 2017. "The Power of a Leading Indicators Fluctuation Trend for Forecasting Taiwans Real Estate Business Cycle: An Application of a Hidden Markov Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 81-98, January.
    6. Steven Devaney, 2007. "Long Run Relationships Between City Office Rents and The Economy In The UK - Creating a Database for Research," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2007-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    7. Zeno Adams & Roland Füss, 2012. "Disentangling the Short and Long-Run Effects of Occupied Stock in the Rental Adjustment Process," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 570-590, May.
    8. Catherine Bruneau & Souad Cherfouh, 2015. "Long-run equilibrium for the Greater Paris office market and short-run adjustments," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 301-323, December.
    9. Christian Rehring & Steffen Sebastian, 2011. "Dynamics of commercial real estate asset markets, return volatility and the investment horizon," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 291-315, June.

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