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An econometric analysis of Shanghai office rents

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  • Qiulin Ke
  • Michael White

Abstract

Purpose - Shanghai is the most important economic centre in China. It also has the nation's largest modern office market in terms of floorspace and investment values. However, as with office markets in other cities and countries, the Shanghai market displays rental volatility. This paper aims to examine this issue. Design/methodology/approach - Rental volatility is examined by econometrically constructing a long‐run equilibrium relationship between rent and underlying demand and supply side factors. In order to establish the validity of this model, it is tested for the presence of a cointegrating vector. From this a short‐run dynamic adjustment model is constructed. This is an error correction mechanism that links the short‐ and long‐run models. The impact of office vacancies, foreign direct investment, and changes in the real interest rate on the office market are explicitly considered. Findings - The results indicate that both demand (as represented by gross domestic product (GDP)) and supply (stock) are significant determinants of rents. Space demand is found to be both price and income elastic. In the short‐run model the error correction term is significant and correctly signed. In comparison to other office markets, the Shanghai market adjusts rather slowly. Foreign direct investment is found to have a positive impact on long‐run rents and the vacancy rate is found to impact on short‐term rental adjustment. Originality/value - The Shanghai office market is the most important in China. However, it has displayed significant rental volatility. This paper is the first to examine explicitly the rental adjustment process in this office market. The results suggest a market that is performing as expected by economic theory but which nevertheless displays relatively slow adjustment to market imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiulin Ke & Michael White, 2009. "An econometric analysis of Shanghai office rents," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 120-139, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jpifpp:v:27:y:2009:i:2:p:120-139
    DOI: 10.1108/14635780910937836
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zeno Adams & Roland Füss, 2012. "Disentangling the Short and Long-Run Effects of Occupied Stock in the Rental Adjustment Process," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 570-590, May.
    2. Qiulin Ke & Michael White, 2015. "Retail rent dynamics in two Chinese cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 324-340, December.
    3. Michael White & Qiulin Ke, 2014. "Investigating the dynamics of, and interactions between, Shanghai office submarkets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 26-44, March.
    4. John McCartney, 2012. "Short and long-run rent adjustment in the Dublin office market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 201-226, April.
    5. Catherine Bruneau & Souad Cherfouh, 2015. "Long-run equilibrium for the Greater Paris office market and short-run adjustments," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 301-323, December.
    6. Shizhen Wang & David Hartzell, 2021. "Real Estate Return in Hong Kong and its Determinants: A Dynamic Gordon Growth Model Analysis," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(1), pages 113-138.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Office buildings; Rents;
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