IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arz/wpaper/eres2013_51.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Non-linear Ripple Effect of Housing Prices in Taiwan: A Smooth Transition Regressive Model

Author

Listed:
  • Mei-Se Chien

Abstract

Being different from past research of regional housing prices, this paper employs smooth transition regression model, derived in Teräsvirta (1998), to investigate ripple effects among four regional house prices in Taiwan. The aim of this paper is to test whether a smooth transition regression model, which is capable of capturing this non-linear behaviour, can show a better characterisation of regional housing prices than a linear model. This empirical analysis applies the four regional house prices of Taiwan, including the capital in Taiwan, Taipei City, and its suburban area, New Taipei City, and the other two mega cities of Taichung City and Kaohsiung City, from the first quarter of 1998 to the second quarter of 2011. Using the changing rate of housing price of Taipei City to be the threshold variable, the empirical results of the smooth transition regression model show that the ripple effect exists between housing prices of New Taipei City and Taipei City, while there is no ripple effect between housing prices of New Taipei City, Taichung City and Kaohsiung City. Besides, this paper has presented evidence of a non-linear relationship between housing prices of New Taipei City and Taipei City. When the changing rate of housing price in Taipei City is lower than 15.02, increasing housing price of Taipei City will make the hosing price of New Taipei City rise. Inversely, if it is higher than 15.02, increasing housing price of Taipei City will make the hosing price of New Taipei City decrease.

Suggested Citation

  • Mei-Se Chien, 2013. "The Non-linear Ripple Effect of Housing Prices in Taiwan: A Smooth Transition Regressive Model," ERES eres2013_51, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2013_51
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2013-51
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/system/files/pdf/eres2013_51.content.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lennart Berg, 2002. "Prices on the second-hand market for Swedish family houses: correlation, causation and determinants," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-24.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    4. Petra Posedel & Maruška Vizek, 2011. "Are House Prices Characterized by Threshold Effects? Evidence from Developed and Post-Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 584-600, December.
    5. Carol Alexander & Michael Barrow, 1994. "Seasonality and Cointegration of Regional House Prices in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 31(10), pages 1667-1689, December.
    6. K. S. Chan & H. Tong, 1986. "On Estimating Thresholds In Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 179-190, May.
    7. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    8. Oikarinen, Elias, 2005. "The Diffusion of Housing Price Movements from Centre to Surrounding Areas," Discussion Papers 979, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    9. Mei-Se Chien, 2010. "Structural Breaks and the Convergence of Regional House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, January.
    10. Skalin, Joakim & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 359-378, July-Aug..
    11. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2008. "Is There Long-run Convergence among Regional House Prices in the UK?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(8), pages 1531-1544, July.
    12. David G. McMillan, 2003. "Non‐linear Predictability of UK Stock Market Returns," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 557-573, December.
    13. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    14. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    15. repec:bla:scotjp:v:44:y:1997:i:3:p:225-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    17. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2012. "Unit Roots and Structural Change," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 757-776, March.
    18. Steven Cook & Dimitrios Vougas, 2009. "Unit root testing against an ST-MTAR alternative: finite-sample properties and an application to the UK housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1397-1404.
    19. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
    20. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    21. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    22. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 11, Royal Economic Society.
    23. John Ashworth & Simon C. Parker, 1997. "Modelling Regional House Prices in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(3), pages 225-246, August.
    24. Cook, Steven, 2005. "Regional house price behaviour in the UK: application of a joint testing procedure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 611-621.
    25. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    26. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    27. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Is there long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK?," Working Papers 05_11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    28. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2001. "Nonlinearities, cyclical behaviour and predictability in stock markets: international evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 459-482.
    29. Peter Abelson & Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich & Demi Chung, 2005. "Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970–2003," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(s1), pages 96-103, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    2. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    3. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Se Chien, 2011. "Empirical Modelling of Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(10), pages 2029-2047, August.
    4. Steve Cook, 2012. "β-convergence and the Cyclical Dynamics of UK Regional House Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(1), pages 203-218, January.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Luis Gil-Alana, 2015. "Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3123-3143, December.
    6. Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "The Housing Markets in Spain and Portugal: Evidence of Persistence," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 19-32, November.
    7. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2012. "Unit Roots and Structural Change," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 757-776, March.
    8. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2013. "Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect in Malaysia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(5), pages 895-922, April.
    9. Montagnoli, Alberto & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "UK house price convergence clubs and spillovers," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-58.
    10. Steve Cook & Duncan Watson, 2016. "A new perspective on the ripple effect in the UK housing market: Comovement, cyclical subsamples and alternative indices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(14), pages 3048-3062, November.
    11. Mei-Se Chien, 2010. "Structural Breaks and the Convergence of Regional House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, January.
    12. Gong, Yunlong & Hu, Jinxing & Boelhouwer, Peter J., 2016. "Spatial interrelations of Chinese housing markets: Spatial causality, convergence and diffusion," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 103-117.
    13. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2015. "Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(9), pages 1665-1682, July.
    14. Hernán Enríquez Sierra & Jacobo Campo Robledo & Antonio Avendaño Arosemena, 2015. "Relaciones regionales en los precios de vivienda nueva en Colombia," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 25-47, June.
    15. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2012. "Comovements among U.S. state housing prices: Evidence from fractional cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 936-942.
    16. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2008. "Is There Long-run Convergence among Regional House Prices in the UK?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(8), pages 1531-1544, July.
    17. I-Chun Tsai, 2015. "Spillover Effect between the Regional and the National Housing Markets in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 1957-1976, December.
    18. Nicholas Apergis & James Payne, 2012. "Convergence in U.S. house prices by state: evidence from the club convergence and clustering procedure," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 103-111, July.
    19. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Regime-switching behaviour in European," Working Papers 0202, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    20. Andrew Abbott & Glauco De Vita, 2012. "Pairwise Convergence of District-level House Prices in London," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 721-740, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2013_51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Architexturez Imprints (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eressea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.