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Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Robust Approach

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  • Pami Dua
  • Anirvan Banerji

Abstract

This paper defines business and growth rate cycles and describes the importance of key coincident indicators and reference chronologies, following reflections on the definition of a recession. The robustness of turning point forecasts based on the indicator approach to business and growth rate cycles is discussed. Since economies undergo structural changes over the course of a business cycle, and rapid structural changes are characteristic of developing economies in particular, practical methods for the analysis and prediction of business cycles need to be robust to such shifts. The recent Great Recession also underscores why “this time, it’s different†should not be considered a valid excuse for forecasting failure. [Working Paper No. 202]. URL:[http://www.cdedse.org/].

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2011. "Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Robust Approach," Working Papers id:4391, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:4391
    Note: Institutional Papers
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    Cited by:

    1. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    2. Silva, Aldy Fernandes da & Weffort, Elionor Farah Jreige & Flores, Eduardo da Silva & Silva, Glauco Peres da, 2014. "Gerenciamento de resultados e crises econômicas no mercado de capitais brasileiro," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 54(3), May.
    3. Anna Pestova, 2015. "Leading Indicators of the Business Cycle: Dynamic Logit Models for OECD Countries and Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 94/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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