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Combining Dynamic Predictions From Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data Using Bayesian Model Averaging

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  • Dimitris Rizopoulos
  • Laura A. Hatfield
  • Bradley P. Carlin
  • Johanna J. M. Takkenberg

Abstract

The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in recent years. More recently, a new and attractive application of this type of model has been to obtain individualized predictions of survival probabilities and/or of future longitudinal responses. The advantageous feature of these predictions is that they are dynamically updated as extra longitudinal responses are collected for the subjects of interest, providing real time risk assessment using all recorded information. The aim of this article is two-fold. First, to highlight the importance of modeling the association structure between the longitudinal and event time responses that can greatly influence the derived predictions, and second, to illustrate how we can improve the accuracy of the derived predictions by suitably combining joint models with different association structures. The second goal is achieved using Bayesian model averaging, which, in this setting, has the very intriguing feature that the model weights are not fixed but they are rather subject- and time-dependent, implying that at different follow-up times predictions for the same subject may be based on different models. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitris Rizopoulos & Laura A. Hatfield & Bradley P. Carlin & Johanna J. M. Takkenberg, 2014. "Combining Dynamic Predictions From Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data Using Bayesian Model Averaging," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(508), pages 1385-1397, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:109:y:2014:i:508:p:1385-1397
    DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2014.931236
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    4. Jeremy M. G. Taylor & Yongseok Park & Donna P. Ankerst & Cecile Proust-Lima & Scott Williams & Larry Kestin & Kyoungwha Bae & Tom Pickles & Howard Sandler, 2013. "Real-Time Individual Predictions of Prostate Cancer Recurrence Using Joint Models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 206-213, March.
    5. Dimitris Rizopoulos & Geert Verbeke & Geert Molenberghs, 2008. "Shared parameter models under random effects misspecification," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(1), pages 63-74.
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    Cited by:

    1. Medina-Olivares, Victor & Calabrese, Raffaella & Crook, Jonathan & Lindgren, Finn, 2023. "Joint models for longitudinal and discrete survival data in credit scoring," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1457-1473.
    2. Rizopoulos, Dimitris, 2016. "The R Package JMbayes for Fitting Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data Using MCMC," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 72(i07).
    3. Jiehuan Sun & Jose D. Herazo‐Maya & Philip L. Molyneaux & Toby M. Maher & Naftali Kaminski & Hongyu Zhao, 2019. "Regularized Latent Class Model for Joint Analysis of High‐Dimensional Longitudinal Biomarkers and a Time‐to‐Event Outcome," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 69-77, March.
    4. Shahedul A. Khan & Nyla Basharat, 2022. "Accelerated failure time models for recurrent event data analysis and joint modeling," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 1569-1597, September.
    5. Hans C. Houwelingen, 2018. "Commentary to the paper by Walter Dempsey and Peter McCullagh," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 595-600, October.
    6. An-Min Tang & Nian-Sheng Tang & Dalei Yu, 2023. "Bayesian semiparametric joint model of multivariate longitudinal and survival data with dependent censoring," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 888-918, October.
    7. Molei Liu & Jiehuan Sun & Jose D. Herazo-Maya & Naftali Kaminski & Hongyu Zhao, 2019. "Joint Models for Time-to-Event Data and Longitudinal Biomarkers of High Dimension," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 614-629, December.
    8. Anirudh Tomer & Daan Nieboer & Monique J. Roobol & Ewout W. Steyerberg & Dimitris Rizopoulos, 2019. "Personalized schedules for surveillance of low‐risk prostate cancer patients," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 153-162, March.
    9. Eleni†Rosalina Andrinopoulou & Paul H. C. Eilers & Johanna J. M. Takkenberg & Dimitris Rizopoulos, 2018. "Improved dynamic predictions from joint models of longitudinal and survival data with time†varying effects using P†splines," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 74(2), pages 685-693, June.
    10. Li, Kan & Luo, Sheng, 2019. "Bayesian functional joint models for multivariate longitudinal and time-to-event data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 14-29.
    11. Qing Liu & Gong Tang & Joseph P. Costantino & Chung‐Chou H. Chang, 2020. "Landmark proportional subdistribution hazards models for dynamic prediction of cumulative incidence functions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1145-1162, November.

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